1st Week of June: The Birth Pangs of a New Republic

The Weekly Turkey Report:  1st Week of June

After visiting the grave of Alparslan Türkeş, founder of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli once again signaled the regime’s commitment to drafting a new constitution. However, the AKP-MHP bloc currently lacks the parliamentary majority needed to change or rewrite the constitution. In the aftermath of the July 15, 2016 so-called coup attempt, constitutional amendments that significantly restricted freedoms—such as the lifting of parliamentary immunity—were passed with the support of then-CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. At the time, the CHP acquiesced to legislative changes that paved the way for an authoritarian turn in the regime.

Today, however, the CHP is under new leadership and maintains a distant stance toward the ruling bloc—so distant, in fact, that even ceremonial holiday greetings are absent. Yet for the regime to push forward with a new constitution, it still needs the cooperation of either the pro-Kurdish DEM Party or the CHP.

Bahçeli has made the MHP’s expectations of the opposition very clear. After the holiday, he declared that Parliament should “undertake an important mission” and summarized his demands in four points:

1. The current “coup-era constitution” must be abolished, and a new constitution should be drafted based on national will and in a spirit of founding consensus that includes input from all political parties.
2. The Political Parties Law must be revised.
3. The electoral system must be reformed.
4. Parliamentary bylaws must be updated to enhance the Grand National Assembly’s efficiency and ensure more civil, constructive debates rooted in mutual respect.

In contrast, both the CHP and Kurdish political actors call for a democratic constitution grounded in the rule of law. Whether Erdoğan would entertain such demands remains highly doubtful. For now, he presides over an increasingly personalized regime, and there is little indication he intends to alter that structure.

However, political conditions are not working in Erdoğan’s favor. As the economic situation worsens, public support for the AKP-MHP alliance is steadily eroding. Kurdish actors are well aware of the regime’s maneuvers, and the PKK has made it clear that without concrete steps from the government, it has no intention of disarming or dissolving itself. KCK Executive Council member Zübeyir Aydar reiterated in a MedyaHaber interview that their demands for equal citizenship and a democratic constitution are firm and non-negotiable.

In foreign policy, Erdoğan is once again watching for the right moment to act in northern Syria. With U.S. support under former President Trump, he pursued efforts to eliminate the Kurdish movement in Rojava by cooperating with the Assad regime. Any renewed military operation would undoubtedly provoke responses not only from Israel and Iran but also from Kurdish communities in Türkiye, who view Rojava as a symbol of pride and draw a red line against such aggression. Domestically, Erdoğan could use a military conflict to delay elections, suppress the opposition, and rally nationalist support through territorial expansion—but the long-term consequences of such a move are unpredictable.

Against this backdrop, pressure on the CHP has sharply intensified. Last week, the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office concluded its investigation into allegations of fraud at the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress—claims originally made by former Hatay Mayor Lütfü Savaş after Özgür Özel was elected as party chair.

Twelve individuals have been indicted under charges of violating the Political Parties Law, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, İzmir Mayor Cemil Tugay, Istanbul Provincial Chair Özgür Çelik, Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat, and Erzurum Provincial Chair Serhat Can Eş. As in similar cases, the indictment seeks political bans for the duration of potential sentences. It also accuses the defendants of vote rigging and demands prison sentences of up to three years each. Notably, former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is named as the “victim” in the indictment, while Lütfü Savaş is listed as the complainant.

The investigation reportedly began after CHP delegates and members of the party council alleged, through social media and various media outlets, that delegates who initially supported Kılıçdaroğlu were offered incentives to back Özgür Özel instead.

Kılıçdaroğlu was summoned for testimony through his lawyer but has yet to appear before prosecutors. Commenting on the case, Özgür Özel stated, “We will never hand over Atatürk’s party to a court-appointed trustee or let it be hijacked through judicial games. We’re here, brother. Bring it on. Any man who thinks he can take over Atatürk’s party without an election will have to face our two million members. Period.”

The Ankara 26th Criminal Court of First Instance has ruled that the case may involve bribery and referred it to the High Criminal Court. Özel claimed the move aims to forcibly bring Kılıçdaroğlu to testify, despite his refusal.

Meanwhile, the fifth wave of investigations targeting Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality resulted in the arrest of former CHP MP Aykut Erdoğdu, Tree and Landscape Inc. Director Ali Sukas, and former Beylikdüzü Mayor’s advisor Veysel Erçevik. Separately, five mayors—Utku Caner Çaykara (Avcılar), Hasan Akgün (Büyükçekmece), Hakan Bahçetepe (Gaziosmanpaşa), Kadir Aydar (Ceyhan), and Oya Tekin (Seyhan)—have been suspended from office amid an ongoing corruption probe.

A new investigation has also been launched against Özgür Özel for allegedly insulting and threatening Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akın Gürlek. Prosecutors accuse him of “obstructing a judicial officer” and “publicly insulting a public servant.”

Separately, a letter allegedly written by Abdullah Öcalan for the 12th PKK Congress—where the group was set to decide on disarmament and dissolution—was leaked. The document reportedly includes seven directives from Öcalan, sent from his prison on İmralı Island. It was briefly published in Serxwebun, a PKK-linked magazine, before being withdrawn.

Lastly, the long-debated 10th Judicial Reform Package passed in Parliament this week. The law now allows inmates convicted of repeat offenses to be eligible for conditional release, paving the way for the possible release of around 19,800 prisoners. The opposition criticized the move, warning that “we are now in a Türkiye where wrongdoing goes unpunished.”