The Weekly Turkey Report: 1st Week of May
As Turkey continues to spiral into chaos and lawlessness, its economic crisis deepens further. The brief market confidence sparked by Mehmet Şimşek’s appointment as Minister of Treasury and Finance collapsed after Istanbul Mayor and CHP presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested on fabricated charges on March 19. The public’s hardships over the past year and a half, endured in hopes of curbing inflation, have now been rendered futile.
The Central Bank is struggling to maintain the critical dollar exchange rate. Since March 19, it has burned through $50 billion to stabilize the lira, depleting its reserves to just $9 billion — yet pressure on the currency remains. On top of that, Asian countries, empowered by Trump’s tariffs, have intensified global competition, adding further strain on Turkish industry and exporters.
The only seemingly positive development was the presence of a peace narrative in public discourse. However, even that was shaken by the death of prominent DEM Party MP Sırrı Süreyya Önder, who passed away from a heart attack 18 days ago, triggering a remarkable outpouring of public mourning.
One of the week’s most dramatic developments occurred abroad. Cemil Önal, the financial manager of Halil Falyalı — a figure linked to illegal betting and drug smuggling in Cyprus and wanted by the U.S. on an Interpol red notice — was assassinated outside The Hague. Önal, who had briefly been detained after Falyalı’s unsolved murder, fled to Greece and then the Netherlands. Detained there at Turkey’s request, he became an informant, revealing details about drug trafficking routes, money laundering, and Turkish political figures’ alleged involvement. Önal had recently given an extensive interview to the newspaper Bugün Kıbrıs, claiming he paid $20 million in bribes to former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu and $50 million to former Vice President Fuat Oktay. He was also rumored to hold compromising tapes of AKP politicians and their families.
Önal described how drug and illegal betting money moved from Latin America to Southern Cyprus and Northern Cyprus, and explained the mechanisms of foreign currency transfers within Turkey. His claims about European illegal betting networks also drew wide attention. Meanwhile, the AKP moved to censor these damaging allegations. CHP leader Özgür Özel revealed that the Presidential Communications Directorate had instructed AKP MPs on what to say in broadcasts. Journalist Barış Terkoğlu published screenshots of these talking points, which framed the Cyprus-related tape operations as “FETÖ and foreign intelligence plots” and urged MPs to engage in “psychological operations.”
In parallel, President Erdoğan held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, describing the conversation as “sincere, productive, and friendly,” and expressing optimism about a new momentum in bilateral relations. Erdoğan noted agreement on Syria and stated that differences would be addressed through “reasonable compromise.”
Yet regional developments did not go in Turkey’s favor. Israel attacked a Turkish aid ship bound for Gaza in international waters and launched 12 heavy airstrikes in Syria to curb HTS and hardline Sunni militants targeting Druze communities. Israel officially warned Damascus to stay away from Druze areas, effectively deepening Syria’s fragmentation and dealing a blow to Turkey’s vision of a unified Syria.
In Cyprus, under U.S. pressure, Turkey agreed to resume the UN-supervised 5+1 negotiations, which pursue a federal solution — contrary to Turkey’s two-state proposal. Meanwhile, Cyprus opened two additional zones for natural gas and oil exploration, adding to the two areas Turkey already claims rights over.
Domestically, the so-called “Peace Process for a Terror-Free Turkey” continued with public exchanges. The PKK Executive Committee, responding to Abdullah Öcalan’s February 27 appeal, emphasized that Öcalan should be allowed “to live and work freely and lead the party congress.” The group clarified that this was not a plea to the government but a call to mobilize civil society toward freedom and democracy. PKK leader Mustafa Karasu affirmed that the group would carry out Öcalan’s call to disband and end the armed struggle, but warned that the process had stalled without Öcalan’s participation. Karasu insisted that even if Öcalan could not attend the congress in person, technical means were available for his involvement.
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli, who had called for this process in parliament last October, demanded that the PKK “immediately lay down arms, hold its congress, and formally dissolve” to avoid “complications” and preserve the goal of a terror-free Turkey. Bahçeli also criticized the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, urging it to oppose the Kurdish National Conference held in Qamishli on April 26, where about 400 representatives from Syria and other countries gathered.
On the political front, President Erdoğan sparked controversy at his party’s group meeting with the remark, “Let’s see how many more CHP members will perish chasing presidential ambitions.” Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş condemned the statement, questioning whether running for office was now a crime. Imprisoned Mayor İmamoğlu interpreted Erdoğan’s words as a “confession.”
May Day saw Istanbul under virtual lockdown. Despite a Constitutional Court ruling recognizing Taksim as part of the workers’ collective memory, the government sealed off the square and detained nearly 400 protesters, including 11 lawyers. Police were again seen covering their ID numbers with tape. Meanwhile, the driver of a CHP campaign bus, arrested during the party’s April 23 march, was sentenced to house arrest.
The week ended with a physical assault on CHP leader Özgür Özel. After attending a memorial for Sırrı Süreyya Önder at the Atatürk Cultural Center, Özel was punched by Selçuk Tengioğlu. In response, Ankara Mayor Yavaş called on citizens to gather at CHP headquarters that evening. When asked about Erdoğan’s post-attack “get well” call, Özel remarked, “I take it as an acknowledgment that the ‘perish’ comment has been withdrawn.”
