1st Week of October: Internal Fractures in the AKP

Weekly Turkey Report: 1st Week of October 2025 

Conflict within the Ruling Party

President Erdoğan’s visit to the United States has ended, but the controversy it sparked has not. While Erdoğan sought to secure Trump’s and Washington’s support ahead of a possible early election, statements by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the leaking of the pre-approved questions Erdoğan would face on his flight back were interpreted by some as signs of internal conflict within the ruling AKP.

During the in-flight interview, Erdoğan, responding to questions prepared by his own team, described his U.S. trip as “highly successful.” Yet shortly afterward, in a televised interview, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan appeared to contradict him. As the government’s leading critic of U.S. policy in Syria, Fidan revealed that, contrary to Erdoğan’s optimistic assessment, serious tensions persist between Ankara and Washington—particularly in the defense sector. He disclosed that due to U.S. sanctions, Turkey’s Kaan fighter jet project remains grounded, literally without an engine.

The Kaan Fighter Jet Without a Engine 

The situation worsened when pro-government journalist Cem Küçük—often regarded as an unofficial government spokesperson—claimed that Erdoğan had been misled about one of Turkey’s most important defense projects.

Despite the uproar, Fidan did not retract his remarks and repeated them on TRT over the weekend.

While Erdoğan failed to secure tangible results on the F-35 or Kaan jet issues, he appears to have achieved progress in the long-standing Halkbank case. According to Bloomberg, Turkey expects the nearly decade-long case to be resolved through a negotiated settlement with the U.S. administration, resulting only in a “manageable” financial penalty.

In parallel, Erdoğan received praise from Trump for mediating—alongside Qatar—a plan aimed at halting Israel’s attacks on Gaza by securing the release of hostages held by Hamas and persuading the group to lay down its arms.

CHP’s Boycott of Erdoğan

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel announced that he and his party would boycott President Erdoğan’s address at the opening of the new legislative term and also abstain from attending the evening reception.
Explaining the decision, Özel said:

“If he acted within constitutional limits, we would listen to him. But he tears up the Constitution and then demands to speak in Parliament. Who gave you this authority? Trump has granted Erdoğan the legitimacy he desperately needed. No one should expect us to legitimize in Parliament those who seek legitimacy from Trump.”

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli harshly condemned CHP’s boycott, calling it a “deeply immoral political act” and declaring:

“This is not only disrespect toward our President but also a direct assault on the historical dignity and institutional heritage of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, as well as on the principles of democracy and the will of the Turkish nation.”

Meanwhile, photos released from the Palace showing members of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party warmly greeting Erdoğan at the same reception triggered intense backlash within their own base. Many DEM supporters viewed the images as “excessively deferential,” generating unease among grassroots members. Analysts suggested Erdoğan’s move was designed to isolate the CHP.

Peace with Kurds Meets the Syrian Roadblock

Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated that any new peace initiative with the Kurds would require the “disarmament of PKK components in Syria.” Similarly, at a presidential meeting led by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz on the 11th Judicial Reform Package, participants reportedly agreed to “wait for the right political timing” before introducing related legal reforms.

Meanwhile, through a DEM Party delegation visiting him in İmralı, PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan issued a call for “democracy and rule of law.”
The DEM Party’s statement read:

“One of the major models civilization developed after centuries of destructive wars is deliberative democracy. The methods and mechanisms forming its essence should guide Turkey’s domestic and foreign problem-solving efforts.”

Öcalan emphasized the importance of establishing a comprehensive legal foundation for peace and stated that “the new century of the Republic must be built upon the law of peace and democracy.”

Kurdish Voters Do Not Trust Erdoğan

According to a September 2025 BUPAR Research poll, nearly 70% of DEM Party voters said they would not vote for the ruling People’s Alliance even if Öcalan himself endorsed it.
The majority of Kurdish voters remain opposed both to Erdoğan’s potential re-election and to any constitutional amendment proposed by his government.

Legal Turmoil in CHP’s Istanbul Branch

Confusion reigns in the CHP’s Istanbul organization. After Özgür Çelik and his provincial leadership were dismissed by court order and replaced with a trustee board led by Gürsel Tekin, an extraordinary congress re-elected Çelik as chairman—triggering debate over which leadership is legally legitimate.
Former YARSAV president Ömer Faruk Eminağaoğlu clarified:

“Once an elective congress is held, the trustee board’s mandate ends. The official certificate (mazbata) issued to the elected leadership is the legally valid one.”

The Road to Prison for Many

Author Ergün Poyraz was arrested for posting photos of AKP-affiliated Aydın Mayor Özlem Çerçioğlu’s house on social media.
Journalist Fatih Altaylı, detained for four months in Silivri, remains in custody with his next hearing scheduled for November 26.
Manager Ayşe Barım—initially released after being charged with organizing the Gezi Park protests—was re-arrested following a prosecutor’s appeal. Barım, who suffers from a neurological disorder, is currently under hospital treatment.

Trump’s Tariffs Hit Turkey

A new TEPAV report by Prof. Dr. Türkmen Göksel and Prof. Dr. Yetkin Çınar reveals that the tariff wars initiated under President Donald Trump have severely hurt Turkey’s motor vehicle exports.
According to the analysis, U.S. import surcharges and retaliatory measures by other countries caused an estimated $738 million loss in Turkish vehicle exports, particularly in tractors, passenger and commercial vehicles, and component parts.

Inflation on the Rise Again

The Central Bank of Turkey and the Central Bank of the UAE signed a bilateral swap deal worth 198 billion TL and 18 billion AED, along with two MoUs to promote the use of local currencies and integrate payment systems.

Meanwhile, official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) showed annual inflation at 33.29% and monthly inflation at 3.23%, exceeding expectations.
The independent ENAG group calculated much higher figures: 63.23% annually and 3.79% monthly.

A striking comparison captured the scale of economic disparity: a Turkish tomato farmer must sell 20 tons of tomatoes to buy the cheapest *iPhone 17 (₺80,000)**, while a watermelon farmer would need to sell 733 tons to afford the top model (₺220,000).

According to the TÜRK-İŞ labor confederation, the September 2025 hunger line rose to ₺27,970 and the poverty line to ₺91,109. The minimum wage now falls ₺5,866 short of the hunger line.
Economist İris Cibre commented:

“For the first time in Turkish history, the gap between the hunger line and minimum wage has reached this level. Even a 20% raise at year’s end won’t recover the loss incurred in 2025.”