1th Week of January 2026: Gülen Movement Labeled “Terrorists,” ISIS Treated as “Suspects”

Weekly Turkiye Report: 1th Week of January 2026: Members of the Gülen Movement Labeled “Terrorists,” ISIS Members Treated as “Suspects”

Executive Summary

• Turkey was shaken ahead of the New Year by a bloody, hours-long clash in Yalova between police and ISIS militants, leaving three police officers dead and six ISIS members killed.
• It later emerged that the ISIS members killed in the raid had previously been detained and released; experts assessed that there are around 15,000 ISIS militants in Turkey.
• After the Yalova operation, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that 357 ISIS suspects were detained in simultaneous operations across 21 provinces—while his choice of language drew attention: he refers to Gülen movement members as “terrorists,” but to ISIS members as “suspects.”
• The government’s “Terror-Free Turkey” process remains focused on Rojava, amid rising threats of a military option if the March 10 agreement is not implemented; Mazloum Abdi met with the al-Jolani administration in Damascus and reiterated key red lines.
• Abdullah Öcalan was allowed to publish a New Year’s message, emphasizing democratic integration in Syria under the March 10 agreement and urging Turkey to play a constructive, dialogue-oriented role.
• The MHP unveiled a 100-article constitutional proposal, including a preamble beginning with religious language and provisions entrenching the first article as “unchangeable.”
• Polling by HBS Research showed Ekrem İmamoğlu leading Erdoğan (53.7% to 46.3%).
• Additional developments included grim figures on violence against women in 2025, a Court of Accounts warning on Demirören’s unpaid loan, visa facilitation with Armenia effective January 1, 2026, journalist Fatih Altaylı’s release, and a rise in enforcement/bankruptcy case files to over 24.2 million.

A Bloody Clash with ISIS

Turkey was shaken ahead of the New Year by a bloody clash in Yalova between police and ISIS militants. In the hours-long firefight, three police officers lost their lives and six ISIS members were killed. For a brief period, there was public debate over allegations that the fallen officers had been sent to raid a safe house without adequate preparation; soon after, the discussion faded and the issue was closed.

Following the incident, it also emerged that the ISIS members who were killed had previously been detained and released. As the Ankara-backed al-Jolani regime in Syria reached an agreement with the United States and appeared close to an understanding with Israel as well, commentators said the ISIS–Turkey tension would remain high. Specialists assessed that there are around 15,000 ISIS militants in Turkey.

This picture vindicates those warning of Turkey’s “Pakistanization.” Considering that stabilizing Syria may take years, it can be said that if Turkey were to pursue an option such as intervention in Rojava, the likelihood is high that not only Syria but also Turkey could become mired in a major quagmire.

ISIS Raid Turns into Firefight

In the operation against ISIS in Yalova, an armed clash broke out. Seven wounded police officers were taken by ambulance to Yalova Training and Research Hospital. While it was reported that the officers were not in life-threatening condition, a statement by the governor’s office said the clash was ongoing. Minister Yerlikaya stated that three police officers were killed, and that eight police officers and one neighborhood guard (bekçi) were injured.

Yerlikaya said the raid took place at 2:00 a.m. at an address in the İsmetpaşa neighborhood, and announced that six “terrorists” were found dead. He also reported that five women and six children in the house were evacuated safely.

The clash during the ISIS raid expanded debate in Turkey about the ISIS threat. A parliamentary research motion submitted two years ago by CHP MP Oğuz Kaan Salıcı—seeking investigation of an alleged “Yalova-based ISIS structure,” and previously rejected—returned to the agenda.

After setting out these allegations, Salıcı said: “It is understood that ISIS is organized within our borders, while the government is not conducting an effective effort to fight ISIS. In light of all that has been described, a parliamentary investigation is necessary in order to take measures against ISIS’s new structure within our borders,” and called for the Grand National Assembly to establish a commission to investigate the issue.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that, following the ISIS operation in Yalova that turned into a firefight and resulted in the deaths of three police officers, simultaneous operations were carried out today in 21 provinces, with 357 ISIS suspects detained. It drew attention that while Yerlikaya uses the term “terrorist” in operations targeting members of the Gülen movement, he refers to ISIS members as “suspects”—once again revealing the regime’s real target.

Öcalan’s New Year Message

The process the regime calls “Terror-Free Turkey” remains locked onto Rojava. As the Palace and the MHP intensified threats toward the Rojava administration and said a military option could come onto the agenda if the March 10 agreement is not implemented, Mazloum Abdi and his delegation met on Sunday in Damascus with the al-Jolani administration. They discussed the status of Rojava’s armed forces, who will be responsible for border security, and the distribution of oil revenues. Mazloum Abdi once again stressed that the independent structure of the Rojava forces is among their red lines.

The CHP leader underscored that they oppose the government’s approach of “first peace, then democracy” or “first law, then democratization.” Stating that the Kurdish issue is rooted in a lack of democracy, Özgür Özel said: “We underscore that the Kurdish issue cannot be resolved without democratization. The steps toward a Terror-Free Turkey and the steps toward a democratic Turkey must not proceed one after the other, but intertwined.”

PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan was permitted to publish a message for the New Year. In his message, Öcalan said: “The chaotic picture that has emerged in Syria is also a clear reflection of the need for democratization. Within the framework of the agreement signed on March 10 between the SDF and the Damascus administration, the fundamental demand expressed is a democratic political model in which peoples can govern themselves together,” and emphasized the following points:

• This approach also contains a basis for a democratically negotiable integration with the central structure. Implementing the March 10 agreement will ease and accelerate the process.
• It is vitally important for Turkey to assume a facilitating, constructive, and dialogue-oriented role in this process. This is of critical importance both for regional peace and for strengthening its own internal peace.
• Despite the difficulties, the Peace and Democratic Society perspective we have developed stands before us not merely as a preference but as a historical necessity. If evaluated correctly and clearly, this perspective can prevent new conflicts and make it possible for peoples to live together, equally and freely—an antidote.

The MHP’s 100-Article Constitutional Proposal

MHP MP and Deputy Chair Feti Yıldız announced a 100-article constitutional proposal prepared by the MHP—described as “new, qualified, civilian, national, and grasping the principles of a moral and spiritual life”—and listed the standout headings as follows:

• Preamble: The constitution’s introductory section will begin with the maxim: “We, the Turkish Nation, brought into being by Allah’s grace, the spirit of brotherhood, and love of homeland.”
• Unamendable Article: “The form and characteristics of the state” will be preserved exactly in the first article, and the final paragraph will add: “This article cannot be amended, nor can its amendment be proposed.”
• Rights and Freedoms: In fundamental rights, the “integrity of rights” will be taken as the basis; freedom will be the rule, limitation the exception.
• Role of the TGNA: The Assembly’s mission to “ensure national unity” will be strengthened. The Speaker of Parliament will be assigned a “neutral mediation” function in resolving political crises.
• Parliamentary Immunity: Ambiguities in immunity and in the grounds for loss of parliamentary status will be removed.
• Presidential System: The system will be given an institutional structure. Two vice presidents would be elected together with the president. The Presidential Cabinet will be granted constitutional status, and a procedure will be introduced for presenting the government program to Parliament.
• Unitary State: The principle of a unitary state will be explicitly included in the constitution.

Is Erdoğan Losing Public Support?

HBS Research, which accurately predicted the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, released its latest survey. According to the poll, the gap widened between imprisoned presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu and President and AKP Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The results of HBS Research’s final 2025 presidential poll were as follows:

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 53.7%
• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 46.3%

A New Claim from Özel

CHP leader Özel visited Tunç Soyer and municipal bureaucrats who are detained in Buca Prison. Speaking to cameras after the visit, Özel described technical details regarding the UAV (İHA) incident in Ankara that was brought down, and repeated the claim that it was due to “running out of fuel.” Özel said that within NATO integration, the alert was issued from a center in Spain; an F-16 that took off from İncirlik tracked the target for 2 hours and 5 minutes; and that because the political leadership delayed the “shoot” decision, the first aircraft ran out of fuel.

Mersin MP Hasan Ufuk Çakır—who resigned from the CHP and was alleged to be joining the AKP—confirmed the claims, saying: “There was no longer an opportunity to do politics in the CHP. The people wanted me to move to the AK Party.”

A Grave Picture of Violence Against Women

Data from the Turkish Federation of Women’s Associations (TKDF) covering January 1–December 31, 2025, revealed the grave scale of gender-based violence. According to the report, a total of 391 women lost their lives due to male violence last year. Of these, 297 were classified directly as femicides, while 94 cases were recorded under the category of “suspicious death.”

Pro-Government Media Magnate Not Paying His Debt

The Court of Accounts (Sayıştay) found that the debt owed—due to Demirören Holding’s failure to repay an $800 million loan extended by Ziraat Bank to purchase the Doğan Media Group—has approached 34 billion lira. Drawing attention to the holding’s situation, the Court urged that all measures, including legal proceedings, be taken swiftly.

A New Period with Armenia

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that visa procedures have been facilitated between Turkey and Armenia for holders of diplomatic, service, and special passports, with the decision taking effect as of January 1, 2026. In a statement on its official social media account, the ministry said visa facilitation was introduced for holders of official passports between the two countries.

Journalist Fatih Altaylı—sentenced to prison in a case in which he was tried on the charge of “threatening the president,” and who had been imprisoned for roughly six months—was released following an appeal by his lawyers to a higher court.

According to a report by Birgün, as of December 28, the total number of files in enforcement and bankruptcy offices rose to 24,205,787. Since the beginning of the year, the number of new files received by enforcement offices exceeded 10.6 million.

Prof. Sadi Uzunoğlu said a new threshold has emerged in Turkey for defining the middle class: “Those with 200,000 lira entering their household per month are lower middle class. Those with income between 300,000–400,000 lira are the middle of the middle… A figure like 500,000 lira defines the upper middle-income segment,” he said.