The Weekly Turkey Report: 2nd Week of April

Since 2015, Türkiye has been struggling in a dark tunnel of political and social turmoil. On one front, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues his campaign to neutralize his biggest rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu and the CHP (The Republican People’s Party). On the other hand, he is trying to escape the foreign policy quagmire brought on by his own ideological blind spots.

The only positive development of the week was the release of 102 university students who were arrested and detained during the CHP’s Saraçhane rallies, which saw heavy police violence.

Another notable event involved Ümit Özdağ, the leader of the Victory Party, who had been arrested during Erdoğan’s “Kurdish initiative” to avoid political obstruction. After nearly three months, a formal indictment was finally prepared. Prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence ranging from 1 year and 10 months to 7 years and 10 months on charges of “inciting hatred and hostility through the press in a continuous manner.” Özdağ is expected to be released at the first hearing.

Meanwhile, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office escalated its pressure on the İmamoğlu family. Trustees were appointed to companies seized from the İBB Mayor. Raids were conducted on the summer homes of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s wife, Dilek, and his father, Hasan, in Bodrum and Çanakkale. CHP Chair Özgür Özel reported that the search of the Çanakkale property yielded only $690, 10 euros, and a few bullets belonging to a licensed weapon. “There were rumors that Dilek and Hasan İmamoğlu would be arrested and that hidden safes, large sums of money, and ammunition would be found in their homes. This is all they found,” he said.

Efforts to silence the media also continued unabated. Investigative journalists Timur Soykan and Murat Ağırel, known for their work on corruption, were detained following early morning police raids, accused of “blackmail and threats.” The case was reportedly initiated upon the complaint of Erkan Kork, owner of the now-seized Flash TV, who had been jailed on charges of money laundering. The journalists were later released under judicial supervision and a travel ban.

A heartbreaking incident also captured public attention this week. Sümeyra Gelir, the 15-year-old daughter of a physics teacher imprisoned for alleged “FETÖ membership,” was found dead in her bed. Sümeyra, who suffered from epilepsy, had been caring for her younger siblings in her mother’s absence. The last photo of her was taken during a prison visit the day before her death.

The most politically significant development was Erdoğan’s participation—his first in 13 years—in the newly revived “Kurdish peace” process initiated by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. Though Erdoğan did not meet with the co-chairs of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, the meeting was held with senior Kurdish politicians Sırrı Süreyya Önder and Pervin Buldan. Also present were AKP Deputy Chair Efkan Ala and intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın. Önder described the 1.5-hour meeting as “very positive,” adding, “We are much more hopeful going forward.”

The DEM Party (The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party) released a statement describing the meeting as constructive and promising:

“Our meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his delegation took place in a highly positive, constructive, and forward-looking atmosphere. The significance of the current stage in the peace process was acknowledged, and the next steps were discussed. A period without violence or conflict, in which democratic and political spaces can flourish, is vital for our country, our citizens, and our region. We are proud to share with the nation that we are more hopeful than ever. We extend our gratitude to all political parties and civil society actors who have contributed to this process with their suggestions, warnings, and critiques.”

CHP leader Özgür Özel also commented on the process: “We are ready to support any step taken within the framework of the parliament. But those who ignore the Kurdish issue and speak with condescension cannot be sincere.” He further recalled that İmamoğlu was arrested for offering positions to Kurds in the municipal council, saying, “Those who don’t even deem Kurds worthy of a council seat cannot solve this issue.”

MHP (The Nationalist Movement Party) leader Devlet Bahçeli remarked, “This is a matter for the Republic of Türkiye.” Referring to the February 27 call for engagement with Öcalan, he said, “The final stage of our sincere, patient, sensitive, honest, and constructive national stance as the People’s Alliance is to rid our country of the burden of terrorism once and for all.”

Speaking at an international conference in Rome attended by over 300 participants from various countries, DEM Party MP and İmralı delegation member Pervin Buldan noted that the process initiated by Bahçeli’s call to Öcalan and continued with Öcalan’s subsequent call for the PKK to disarm is expected to succeed by the end of June. Buldan stated that they would soon meet with Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç and would likely hold another visit to Öcalan on İmralı Island. “The process is expected to conclude successfully within a few months—by the end of June—both from the perspective of Mr. Öcalan and the state authorities,” she said.

The week also saw continued economic turbulence, triggered by İmamoğlu’s arrest. The Central Bank, in an effort to stabilize the dollar at 38 lira, exhausted the reserves it had accumulated over two years in just two weeks—spending $44 billion. The net reserves excluding swaps are now reported at just $14 billion.

In foreign affairs, disappointments continued. The most unexpected blow came from Central Asia. At a summit with the European Union on April 4, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan formally recognized the Republic of Cyprus—referred to by Türkiye as the “Greek Cypriot Administration”—and appointed ambassadors to Nicosia. This development dealt a major blow to Erdoğan’s hopes that the Turkic republics would recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Meanwhile, tensions with Israel over Syria were reportedly de-escalated during a meeting in Baku mediated by Azerbaijan. According to Israeli media, the Israeli government has warned Türkiye that it would not tolerate Turkish presence at T4 and Hama airbases, which it considers red lines. In northeastern Syria, the Rojava Administration reportedly made significant progress in its cooperation with Damascus.

A new crisis is emerging in the Aegean Sea. The laying of undersea electricity cables between Cyprus and Greece—also involving Israel—has sparked tensions between Türkiye and Greece. Ankara has protested that the French company laying the cables via a ship leased from Italy is trespassing through Turkish waters under the Türkiye-Libya maritime deal. Ankara announced it would not permit the operation without its consent. France responded by dispatching an aircraft carrier to the region. It remains to be seen how economically struggling Türkiye will navigate this crisis without provoking or clashing with the European Union.