3rd Week of May: War Drums

The Weekly Turkey Report: 3rd Week of May

As public support for the ruling AKP continues to decline, the Erdoğan regime is tightening its grip and intensifying repression. The recent U.S. strike on Iran could exacerbate regional instability and economic strain, likely eroding support further. In response, the regime grows increasingly brazen, targeting a wide range of individuals—from young girls affiliated with the Gülen movement to once-prominent journalists like Fatih Altaylı, from opposition mayors to young Kurdish reporters.

While pro-government media outlets accuse Israelis of fleeing to Cyprus and brand Jews as cowards, Turkey’s Minister of Tourism chooses to vacation off the coast of Athens aboard a million-dollar yacht—going so far as to invite a government-aligned journalist onboard for an interview. We are witnessing a peak of shamelessness and hypocrisy.

The week ended with the arrest of journalist Fatih Altaylı on Saturday night and his formal detention on Sunday evening, alongside the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. While Ankara has harshly condemned Israel as a “rogue state” and “terrorist regime,” it offered only a muted response to the United States’ move, which threatens to destabilize the regional balance.

Erdoğan, who postures as a lion at home but acts like a housecat abroad, inadvertently revealed Turkey’s dire military vulnerabilities in his recent speeches. While projecting strength in the medium term, he simultaneously acknowledged the country’s current military inadequacies.

Turkey, now resembling a parallel party-state akin to Iran and stripped of institutional integrity, lacks an effective air defense system—a gap unlikely to be filled given current economic constraints, as such capabilities require multibillion-dollar investments. Expelled from the F-35 program and blocked from purchasing Eurofighters, Ankara is clinging to the domestic KAAN fighter jet, which still lacks an engine. The post-2016 purge of military academies and pilots has left the air force unable to do much beyond bombing Kurds—its F-16s not even modernized. Yet the regime pushes forward, relying on lies and suppression.

The judiciary, subordinated to Erdoğan’s command, is now being wielded to cancel the main opposition CHP’s party congress scheduled for June 30. The plan reportedly includes appointing Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a government trustee to neuter the party.

CHP leader Özgür Özel dismissed the legal challenges to his leadership as politically motivated and aimed at creating internal chaos. “We won’t bow to a few clowns while we carry the weight of the nation’s pain and struggle,” he said, referencing Kılıçdaroğlu’s previous statement that the party congress was “untarnished.”

Former CHP MP and journalist Barış Yarkadaş claimed that Kılıçdaroğlu’s lawyer, Celal Çelik, denied these statements—only to be rebuked by Özel, who cited Ekrem İmamoğlu’s direct conversation with Kılıçdaroğlu. Özel denounced the lawyer’s remarks as “disrespectful” and claimed even Kılıçdaroğlu’s own legal team contradicted Çelik’s denial.

Meanwhile, all 81 CHP provincial heads issued a joint statement addressing the party’s internal tensions, urging unity against external interventions and implicitly calling on Kılıçdaroğlu and other former leaders to resist undermining the party.

The Erdoğan-controlled judiciary continues to be reshuffled through mass reassignments. In the 2025 judicial decree, 4,036 judges and prosecutors were appointed to new posts. Notably, two key figures involved in the legal case to annul Ekrem İmamoğlu’s diploma were promoted to Istanbul’s regional administrative courts.

European Parliament rapporteur for Turkey, Nacho Sanchez Amor, met with Turkish journalists in Brussels, stating: “If you want EU membership, know this: the road to Europe runs through Silivri [prison], not Bayraktar [drone] factories.”

A DEM Party delegation led by co-chairs Tülay Hatimoğulları and Tuncer Bakırhan visited İmamoğlu in Silivri Prison. Hatimoğulları conveyed his greetings to the public, while İmamoğlu later issued a statement titled “The Path to Peace is the Path of the Republic of Turkey,” declaring: “Turkey must return to democracy and the rule of law before the Kurdish issue can be permanently resolved.”

The DEM Party delegation also met with detained mayors and opposition figures, including Şişli Mayor Resul Emrah Şahan, Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer, and former Van Co-Mayor Bekir Kaya, as well as imprisoned HDK activists and MP Can Atalay.

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli responded to Israel’s strike on Iran by claiming the real goal was to encircle Anatolia and destabilize Turkey. Calling Israel the “forward base of global imperialism,” Bahçeli warned of a potential world war and announced MHP’s plan to hold “Terror-Free Turkey” rallies in all 81 provinces.

Former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş, speaking from Edirne Prison via his lawyers, warned against reckless geopolitical adventurism, stressing unity in the face of imperialism and calling for domestic reconciliation through mutual trust and fraternity—not vengeance or ideological rigidity.

Zafer Party leader Ümit Özdağ, on trial for “inciting hatred,” was sentenced to 2 years, 4 months, and 3 days in prison but released immediately following the verdict.

President Erdoğan continued targeting the opposition, accusing the CHP of turning municipalities into “cash cows” and acting as “human shields” for corruption. He mocked the party’s internal scandals as a “soap opera” and urged CHP leaders to seek “effective repentance.”

Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş reiterated calls for a new constitution that would pave the way for Erdoğan’s lifelong presidency. CHP’s Gökhan Günaydın rejected these overtures outright, declaring the party would not participate in any such process:

“This patchwork constitution has lost its ideological core and is deeply anti-democratic. Major reform is needed, but not with AKP and MHP. They offer honeyed promises only to push their own agenda.”

Finally, UBS’s 2024 Wealth Report revealed a striking paradox: Turkey leads the world in the growth of U.S. dollar millionaires, yet ranks dead last in real average wealth growth, which fell 21% year-on-year. Inequality continues to deepen.

On the economic front, fuel prices soared again amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel. Brent crude climbed to $78 per barrel, pushing diesel up by 3.30 TL and gasoline by 1.51 TL. Diesel prices are now nearing 55 TL per liter in many cities—making the government’s 30% inflation target all but impossible to achieve.