The Trump-Putin Charade

Now that Gaza is done and dusted,  Donald Trump appears to be getting ready to settle another war, Ukraine. But do not hold your breath. We are nowhere near a ceasefire, much less a peace. Rather, it is still the same old Trump and Putin game of smoke and mirrors. 

After a tilting to Ukraine over the past month or so,  Trump is now embracing Putin. President Volodymyr Zelensky has a reason to feel disappointed.  He went to the White House on 17 October expecting a green light for the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. What he got instead is more of Trump’s usual zig-zagging. As of now, Kyiv is not to receive the advanced weapon system. The US president is fully focused on his summit with Vladimir Putin due to take place in Budapest, Hungary, in the coming weeks. Time for more deal making, in other words. 

According to Trump, the Russians mean business. If all plays well, the White House’s line is, a ceasefire might be within reach. Trump himself is visibly pleased about the prospect of bagging another diplomatic success, following the Gaza truce. He described his recent phone call with Putin as “very productive” and said he believed “great progress was made” in that conversation. Trump pledged, once again, to “bring this ‘inglorious’ war between Russia and Ukraine to an end.” He is talking up, yet again, the bright prospects for US-Russian trade should a deal be reached. Sending the Tomahawks, the US president seems to think, would be an escalatory move at a time when the wheels of diplomacy are shifting to higher gear. 

From a certain angle, Trump might have a point. Last Thursday’s phone call was initiated by Russia, per the Kremlin. That marks a departure from previous calls between the two leaders as well as the Anchorage Summit (15 August)  which all happened on US initiative. Maybe, just maybe, Putin is coming to his senses having been pressed by the Americans on multiple fronts.   

Trump’s announcement that India is ready to discontinue imports of Russian crude oil hints that Washington is trying to leverage third countries to squeeze Russia. Though there has been no official confirmation by New Delhi, some Indian refiners have reportedly paused placing new orders for Russian crude. For example, sources say companies such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) have not placed new orders over the last week.  

The EU is meanwhile looking at legal means to harness EUR 140 billion in Russian foreign currency reserves blocked on its soil.  Most likely, the principal will be used as a collateral for loans issued to Ukraine.  What to do with Moscow’s frozen cash will be on the agenda of the next European Council’s (forum of the heads of state and governments of the 27 EU members) meeting scheduled for 22-24 October. 

The Russian economy is showing signs of strain too. “War Keynesianism” – pumping money into the economy to ramp up defence production and offset the negative fallout of Western sanctions, has long hit its limits. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Russia’s 2025 GDP-growth forecast down to about 0.6%.  Large budget deficits are mounting.  Inflation is at 8% on yearly basis while the benchmark rate set by the Bank of Russia is at a sky-high 17%.  Labour shortages in the civilian sector additionally drive up wages and prices.  So long as Russia is able to finance state spending through energy sales abroad, it can just about balance the book. But it appears that Ukrainian deep strikes against refineries and gas processing plans are already sapping the exports of refined products. Should India or other countries stop buying, the Russian economy will deteriorate further. 

In short,  Putin might have a good reason to turn to Trump and starting drawing together with him the contours of some sort of truce in Ukraine.  More ambitiously, the Budapest Summit may lay the groundwork for a compromise. Russia will be pocketing some territorial concessions and sanctions relief. Ukraine will retain its independence.  Trump will be basking in the glory of a peacemaker and, who knows, even score a Nobel Peace Prize in due course.  

If only it were so simple.  

First of all,  we have no way of knowing whether the Russian leader has changed his strategic calculus. Until now, he has always behaved as if time is on Russia’s side.  That is why he essentially turned down an US proposal, made last March, which included the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea. It would have been a pretty good deal but Putin believed he could snatch an even better one in the future. What he sees is incremental progress. Moscow’s ongoing ground offensive, though disappointing in light of its initial objectives to conquer the remainder of the Donestsk region, is eating up Ukrainian land.  Daily strikes by drones and missiles terrorise civilian populations across Ukraine and damage the energy infrastructure. In the mind of Putin, he is still winning and there is no reason to stop now. Especially, if Trump is not willing to raise the stakes.  Recurrent threats heard in Washington – punitive sanctions, more capable weapons given to Ukraine – have come to nothing. The Kremlin sees them as little more than a bluff.  

Second, Putin already has a history of indulging Trump in order to diminish the risk of the US doubling down on aid to Ukraine and on NATO. He engages in a protracted diplomatic process to keep the appearance of a peace process and give the US president an excuse for not taking tougher measures. Than in phone calls and face-to-face talks as in Anchorage, Putin repeats Russia’s maximalist objectives: full recognition of its territorial gains, subordination of rump Ukraine through granting Moscow an effective veto over its geopolitical choices, “denazification” (code for installing a pliant government in Kyiv) and so forth. These conditions are not acceptable to Ukraine and, by now, even Trump has waken up to the reality that total capitulation is not good for his personal brand of a wheeler and dealer as well as a tough guy. (European politicians have done their fair share in talking sense to him). Yet Putin knows that Trump prefers a deal to an escalation. That’s why his strategy is to simply keep talking. The latter-day Russian tzar is even partial to giving Trump and his confidante and envoy Steve Witkoff the odd lecture on the medieval history of East Slavs, reports allege. The long conversations and exchanges are a dead-end street.  Yet both Trump and Putin have reasons to pretend they are for real.   

Surprises do happen in international politics but all things being equal Budapest will be little more than a repeat of Anchorage.