The new US National Security Strategy will clash with reality

It’s no secret that Donald Trump has a soft spot for Europe. He might not exactly be in love with the European Union (EU),  an entity whose purpose, he seems to believe, is to take unfair advantage of the US. But it is a different story when it comes to white-majority, Christian “Old Europe”. Britain, the birthplace of Trump’s mother, along with Ireland hold a special place in the mind of the MAGA movement, courtesy of the English language.  

Turning back the clock to an imaginary golden era is very much the core theme in the new National Security Strategy (NSS) the White House unveiled on the night of 4-5 December.  You might have thought that America First was all about pulling out from the world and retrenching. Not so with Europe. The NSS follows in the footsteps of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at last February’s Munich Security Conference. Rather than leave Europe to its own devices, the strategy posits that the US main objective is to save the Old Continent from itself. It singles out “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” as a priority. The strategy furthermore cheers at “the growing influence of patriotic European parties” standing up for “genuine democracy, freedom of expression and unapologetic celebrations of European nation’s individual character and history”. In plain English: liberal elites have hijacked Europe and now it’s time for the likes of Alternative for Germany (AfD),  France’s National Rally (RN) and Reform UK to take the lead.  Or else, the NSS opines, migrants will flood Europe and become majority in several NATO countries which, as a result, won’t consider the US an ally anymore.  If only Europeans could see the light and hand power to Trump lookalikes and MAGA fellow travellers.   

America’s newly launched crusade against wokeism shouldn’t surprise anyone. The NSS recycles familiar talking points of the European far right, from Viktor Orban to the Daily Mail. Besides, Trump (or Vance?) is hardly first foreign leader to save Europe.  The Vancean NSS is at times indistinguishable from an interview one Vladimir Putin gave to the Financial Times back in 2019. “The liberal idea presupposes that nothing needs to be done,” Vladimir Vladimirovich said. “The migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected.” Of course,  Putin forewent the fact that Russia is home to many migrants – an estimated 11.6 million or about 8% of the population, with Central Asians being the largest group. His was a more philosophical point:  “Traditional values are more stable and more important for millions of people than this liberal idea, which, in my opinion, is really ceasing to exist.”   Here you have the Trump-Putin-Orban ideological alignment on full display.   

Putin the moraliser will be thrilled about the short shrift the US is giving the Europeans.  But the Russian leader won’t be too unhappy with other aspects of America’s new strategy.  More to the point, he will be giving the thumbs up to the call to reestablish “strategic stability” with Russia.  That is a departure from the Biden administration’s view on the matter but also Trump 1’s NSS adopted in 2017. The latter touted great power competition as the main challenge to the US, with China and Russia as the adversaries.   This time around,  Washington appears to be sold on the idea that a grand deal with Moscow is both necessary and feasible.   

The urge to make nice with the Kremlin is visible in the NSS’ commitment to halt NATO’s enlargement. It is of course an empty proposition on a non-issue: no other country beyond Sweden and Finland is poised to enter, not even Ukraine (as no member of the Pact is prepared to fight Russia directly as the collective defence clause in Article 5 mandates).   What it is a symbolic concession to the Russians and, to a lesser degree, to the isolationist strand within MAGA.   But the sceptical line on NATO dovetails with the rhetorical onslaught against Europe (Elon Musk calling on X for the EU to be dismantled) and adds to the optic of a divided West.  Putin would be excused to believe he is winning.  

There is no strategy which survives the first clash with reality. This one won’t be different.  To start with, the far right’s culture wars mean little to a great number of voters.  That became clear in the recent round of elections in the US where Democrats made gains campaigning on cost of living issues.   It is even more the case in Europe where anti-woke campaigns have never propelled anyone to power.  In addition, mainstream parties might be struggling everywhere  but it is not a given that  Reform UK or RN or AfD will be anywhere near gaining majority support.  Even if they make it to power,  their policies won’t be in line with Trump’s preferences.   Wrecking the EU probably will not be in the cards,  as the case of Giorgia Meloni’s Italy suggests.  Besides,  a RN-run France will not be behaving as a US vassal either, no matter what MAGA ideologues believe. Just the opposite, such leaders would probably take a softer line on China and try to play it off against America. 

Russia won’t be an easy nut to crack either. Trump and Vance’s apparent conviction that Europe is the problem while Moscow could be an economic and why not strategic partner is magical thinking. Even if a settlement with Putin was possible the confrontation between Russia and Europe will last. The US will find it difficult to stay neutral because it is invested in the security of the West through NATO and through a massive trade and investment relationship. More to the point,  the Ukraine war has made Russia dependent on China and there is no way back. The US strategic competition with Beijing involves Putin too, whether he likes that or not. There are structural forces the current American leadership cannot wish away. 

The new NSS deepens distrust between Europe and America and makes the former’s life more difficult. It is music to Putin’s ears too.  But a couple of years from now the document might not mean much,  with an erratic US foreign policy trying to navigate the mess Trump will no doubt leave in his wake.