Fourth Week of January: A New Kobane Moment for the Kurds

Weekly Turkey Report: Fourth Week of January 2026 – A New Kobane Moment for the Kurds

Executive Summary

• Kobane once symbolized Kurdish resistance against ISIS and cooperation with the United States; today, the report argues, Kurdish sacrifices have been politically “written off,” while Ankara is positioned to determine Kurdish fate in northern Syria.

• The text portrays a widening Kurdish sense of anger and abandonment, as cross-border military pressure escalates while a domestically marketed “peace and brotherhood” narrative continues at home.

• The government published İmralı minutes abruptly; Öcalan’s remarks suggest a preference for an individualized “right to hope” (Umut Hakkı) framework rather than a general amnesty that would also benefit Kurdish prisoners and members of the Gülen movement (“Cemaat”).

• MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli accused DEM Party of responsibility over a border-flag incident and renewed calls to “cleanse” the Euphrates east of “terror,” while also disclosing that Öcalan sent him a “peace and brotherhood rug.”

• Metropoll polling indicates strong public resistance to constitutional recognition of Kurdish identity within citizenship definitions.

• Domestic strain remains acute: reported antidepressant consumption has risen sharply since 2016; regulators also raided Temu’s Turkey office, reportedly seizing computers.

Kobane Revisited: From Global Sympathy to Strategic Abandonment

Kobane pushed the Kurds onto the world stage through their resistance to ISIS. Kurdish fighters—working in cooperation with the United States—helped halt ISIS’s advances and ultimately drive the group from the battlefield. Images and stories of Kurdish women fighters circulated widely in prominent European and American media.

With ISIS’s threat reduced, the costs paid by the Kurds, the report argues, were quickly forgotten. In Syria today, ISIS is described as reappearing “in a different costume,” with brutal videos targeting Kurdish women. Yet, in the report’s telling, the figure presented as Syria’s president is welcomed in European capitals. The report further claims that the United States—preoccupied with President Trump’s attempt to remake Gaza into a “new Miami”—appears ready to leave the Kurds’ fate to Ankara. Meanwhile, thousands of people in Kobane, described as besieged by jihadist forces, are struggling to endure hunger and thirst.

More broadly, the report depicts a global normalization of rupture: Gaza, Iran’s violence against dissidents, the Kurdish fear of annihilation, and authoritarian drift in the United States are presented as events that occur, conclude, and pass—without reshaping the world’s political routines.

Turkey’s Social Fracture and the Kurdish Sense of Powerlessness

The report argues that Turkey is experiencing a profound social fracture, with the Kurds increasingly angry yet constrained. After July 15, Kurdish political leverage is portrayed as having weakened, and it is described as being reduced further within a peace process endorsed by İmralı.

As jihadist actors, allegedly empowered by Erdoğan’s support, prepare to push Kurds out of Syria, a parallel discourse of “peace and brotherhood” is sustained along the border. The report claims that Turkish public opinion—religious and secular alike—largely applauds what is happening in Syria, while poverty, corruption, and repression are morally and politically “justified” by the pressure placed on the Kurds.

Öcalan and the “Right to Hope” Debate

The report states that, while the regime is engaged in conflict with Kurds in Rojava, it suddenly published İmralı minutes. In those notes, Abdullah Öcalan is quoted making several remarks worth noting, including:

• The view that a “state mind” is what brought the parties together and that it would have been better if the CHP were present in the commission discussion.

• A stated desire for a “big Turkey” that has resolved its problems.

• An emphasis on considering Bahçeli’s proposed “hope principle” (Umut Hakkı), presented as a way to avoid a general amnesty.

• A claim that without the “right to hope” framework, he “cannot work,” paired with an assertion that if Syria policy fails he would accept criticism and accountability.

The report adds a significant political interpretation: Öcalan is portrayed as preferring an individualized “right to hope” mechanism rather than a general amnesty that could also include Kurdish prisoners with sentences under 25 years as well as members of the Gülen movement (Cemaat). This preference is presented as a key point to watch.

Border Flag Incident and Bahçeli’s Hard-Line Message

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli reacted to claims that a Turkish flag was lowered and trampled along the Nusaybin–Qamishli border line, stating that DEM Party bears primary responsibility.

Reiterating that the SDF and YPG are terrorist organizations, Bahçeli stated that the Euphrates east must be “cleansed” of terror and “bloody الحسابs,” adding: “That day is today.” He described the flag incident as a “heavy provocation” against the solution process and called on DEM Party to “decide” whether it stands with or against the PKK’s founding leader and whether it will serve a “terror-free future.”

A Symbolic Gesture: “A Peace Rug” to Bahçeli

Despite these tensions, the week’s most striking development, according to the report, was Bahçeli’s disclosure that Öcalan sent him a “peace and brotherhood rug.” Bahçeli stated that when the DEM Party delegation visited the MHP on December 12, 2025, they delivered a rug specially woven in Şanlıurfa on Öcalan’s instruction.

DEM Party: Warning of a Deepening Break

DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan, writing for a media outlet, issued two warnings highlighted in the report:

• “How can brotherhood be built on a ground where Kurdish pain is presented as Turkish victory?”

• A message to those ignoring Kurdish emotional rupture: the break is deep and growing, and “the price of each torn button is paid by peoples.”

Public Opinion: Metropoll Poll Signals Nationalist Resistance

A Metropoll Research poll is cited as showing strong resistance to expanding the constitutional definition of citizenship in a way that recognizes Kurdish identity. Reported results:

• No: 60.7%

• Yes: 34.5%

• No opinion: 4.8%

Breakdowns reported in the text include high “No” rates among MHP, İYİ Party, CHP, and AKP voters, while DEM Party voters overwhelmingly say “Yes.”

Erdoğan–Bahçeli Meeting Without Statement

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli met at the Presidential Complex. The meeting lasted about one hour and ended without a public statement.

Opposition Under Pressure: Sentencing and Court Rulings

“Kurdish Penalty” for a CHP Mayor

Ahmet Özer, the CHP’s Esenyurt mayor who was removed and replaced by a trustee (kayyum), was sentenced to six years and three months in the case popularly labeled the “Kurdish Consensus” (Kent Uzlaşısı) case. He had been tried on allegations of membership in an armed terrorist organization.

In a notable twist, Bahçeli criticized the outcome—arguing that the decision conflicts with universal legal principles and is incompatible with the stated goal of a “terror-free Turkey,” even as he framed the case as tied to “membership” accusations.

Court Rejects İmamoğlu’s Case

The court reportedly rejected, unanimously, İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s lawsuit challenging the cancellation of his diploma.

Society and Economy: Deepening Distress and a Competition Raid

CHP Deputy Chair Burhanettin Bulut stated that antidepressant use rose from 45,132,854 boxes (2016) to 71,527,690 boxes (2025), framing the increase as a result of poor governance, poverty, hopelessness, unemployment, debt stress, and anxiety about the future.

Separately, the report notes that Turkey’s Competition Authority raided the local office of Chinese e-commerce platform Temu, with reports that computers were seized; as of the time of writing, no official statement on the reason or outcome had been issued.