Lebanon Between War and Diplomacy

Lebanon is approaching a particularly sensitive period, caught between the risk of a wider regional confrontation and the possibility of a political settlement that could bring greater stability. A lot will depend on the outcome of diplomatic efforts now underway and whether they can contain tensions before they escalate.

With little ability to influence regional and international developments, Lebanon remains dependent on decisions taken in major world capitals and the outcome of negotiations on several fronts. Beirut is monitoring these diplomatic efforts, while state institutions assess the possible scenarios.

A source close to the Lebanese presidency says two major international developments are currently under discussion, both of which could affect Lebanon and the regional balance of power.

The first involves efforts to arrange a meeting between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine. Should the meeting take place, it could also open the door to broader discussions between Washington and Moscow, and create an opportunity to address other international disputes.

The second is a proposed meeting involving the United States, China, and Russia. Trump has said he expects to meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and Putin on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18 and 19. Any understanding among the three powers could affect several pressing issues, including the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle Eastern, and Iran’s nuclear program. However, the meeting itself does not guarantee any agreements, given the competing interests and strategic calculations involved.

For Lebanon, these developments are tightly linked to the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which remain central to the future of the region. The confrontation between the United States and Iran is not limited to the nuclear program and sanctions. It is also about Tehran’s regional influence and the future role of its allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Progress in these negotiations could pave the way for further political and security understandings, reduce the risk of escalation in Lebanon, and create favorable conditions for a settlement that would reshape the country’s internal political scene.

But negotiations could also stall or reach a dead end, bringing the military option back into consideration, with serious consequences for Lebanon. The country remains under threat of Israeli aggression, while fears persist that the confrontation could widen into a full-scale war.

The Lebanese state therefore has to prepare for a difficult and uncertain period. It must be ready for every possible scenario, with no clear indication of when events might unfold or how they might develop. Betting on a diplomatic settlement does not mean that war is off the table, just as preparing for possible escalation does not mean that a decision to go to war has already been made.

The presidency has an important role to play at this stage, both in following international diplomatic efforts and in reaffirming Lebanon’s official position on the need to avoid another confrontation. It must also work to restore decisions on war and peace to state institutions.

The main question, however, is whether diplomacy can produce international and regional understandings before the situation escalates into military confrontation. Could the expected meetings between major world leaders pave the way for agreements on issues not formally on their agendas? Or will conflicting international interests once again leave the region bearing the cost of a struggle for influence?

Lebanon is not a key player in shaping international settlements, but it could be among those most affected by their outcome. Developments in Washington, Moscow and Beijing, as well as contacts between the United States and Iran, may have a greater bearing on Lebanon’s future than much of the political debate taking place at home.

Until then, Lebanon will remain in a state of anticipation, watching diplomatic efforts and military preparations unfold. The coming weeks will show whether the diplomatic contacts now underway can bring about a change in the regional situation, or whether uncertainty will continue to prevail.