The Weekly Turkey Report: The End of May
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has once again declared his intention to remain president for life. To legitimize this ambition, he has revived calls for a new constitution. This move incorporates two key strategies: using the “Kurdish card” and weakening or fracturing the main opposition party, the CHP. While things currently seem to be proceeding in Erdoğan’s favor, the road ahead is far from smooth. He faces significant obstacles both from Kurdish political actors and from a more resilient-than-expected CHP.
According to pro-CHP media and commentary by pro-government columnists, the election of Özgür Özel as party leader at the CHP Congress may be overturned in court. A ruling is expected at the June 30 hearing.
Journalist İsmail Saymaz, known for his proximity to the CHP, reported a striking development regarding the lawsuit challenging the 38th Ordinary Congress held on November 4–5, 2023. He claimed that Ankara courts are expected to declare a “null and void” decision on the congress. More strikingly, Saymaz suggested that former CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu might step in to reclaim leadership under the pretext of “preventing the party from being left headless.” Saymaz noted that if Kılıçdaroğlu returns, the current CHP leadership under Özel would fiercely resist. When asked how they would respond, party insiders reportedly said: “We’ll do what we did in Saraçhane.”
Kılıçdaroğlu has now made his first public statement about the lawsuit, saying: “We must rely not on gossip but on truth, not on personal motives but on public concerns. Let it be known: we are capable of drowning the enemies of this party in its own sacred domain.” If Kılıçdaroğlu agrees to become court-appointed trustee, it would likely plunge the CHP—currently polling 5–6 points ahead of the AKP—into chaos and infighting.
Meanwhile, Erdoğan is pressing forward. A series of sweeping “corruption and terrorism” investigations into the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) continue at full pace. In the fifth wave of these operations, arrest warrants were issued for 47 people, including several CHP-affiliated mayors and former MPs. Among those detained were the mayors of Büyükçekmece, Gaziosmanpaşa, Avcılar, Ceyhan, and Seyhan, as well as İBB officials and a CHP Party Assembly member.
Additionally, of the 46 people detained on May 23 in relation to these investigations, 25 have been formally arrested and 21 banned from international travel. Those arrested include İmamoğlu’s Chief of Security, İBB’s Chief of Staff, and multiple department heads at municipal companies such as KİPTAŞ and İSTAÇ.
Despite these intensifying crackdowns, Erdoğan publicly extended an invitation to the CHP to join him in drafting a new constitution. Özel, in response, dismissed the idea outright: “You imprison opposition figures, weaponize the judiciary, and then pretend we’re in a functioning democracy where we can write a constitution together? I wouldn’t even make ‘menemen’ (a kind of Turkish meal ) with you—let alone a constitution!”
Yet Erdoğan is undeterred. At his party’s Provincial Chairs Meeting, he announced the formation of a legal commission tasked with drafting the new constitution, chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. Work is set to begin this summer.
On another front, Erdoğan’s so-called “Peace Process” aimed at a “Terror-Free Turkey” has also encountered setbacks. Negotiations with Abdullah Öcalan and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party have stalled. Promised legislative reforms have not been delivered, and Öcalan’s prison conditions remain unchanged. Although the 10th Judicial Reform Package was submitted to parliament—including parole reforms—it excluded the provision allowing prisoners convicted before July 23, 2023, to benefit from pandemic-related furloughs. A clause enabling the release of elderly and sick prisoners did make it into the package.
AKP’s parliamentary leader Abdullah Güler called the bill “just a beginning” and pledged further reforms under the banner of “rule of law.” However, the DEM Party criticized the omission of key provisions. Notably, the clause was reportedly dropped due to concerns it could benefit members of the Gülen movement, not just Kurdish inmates. DEM Party had demanded a more inclusive release mechanism with no restriction based on crime type or sentence length.
Meanwhile, Kurdish journalists closely monitoring the process have faced censorship, with YouTube bans imposed on several accounts. From the PKK’s recent dissolution congress in Iraq, Kongra-Gel co-chair Remzi Kartal criticized the DEM Party for failing to respond forcefully to Erdoğan’s moves against the CHP and Ekrem İmamoğlu. DEM has since announced plans to visit İmamoğlu in Silivri Prison after Eid.
Erdoğan’s urge to control every aspect of society is extending even into religious texts. A new law approved in the Parliament’s Budget Committee would authorize the Directorate of Religious Affairs to inspect—and ban—Qur’anic translations it deems problematic. Existing publications could be recalled and destroyed, and digital versions censored.
In a separate operation related to the so-called “FETÖ” organization, 61 active-duty military officers — including lieutenant colonels, majors, and captains — were arrested in a large-scale purge. The Istanbul-based operation, carried out on May 23 across 36 provinces, targeted 63 individuals in total. Among those detained were 4 colonels, 8 lieutenant colonels, 12 majors, 15 captains, and 24 non-commissioned officers or specialist sergeants.
On the economic front, tensions within the AKP are rising. The pro-government newspaper Yeni Şafak openly criticized Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek on its front page. Rumors are circulating that a major cabinet reshuffle is planned for June 3, with speculation that Şimşek may either lose his post or have his powers curtailed.
