False Peace and an Increasingly Repressive Regime
Turkey’s agenda remains constant yet tense. This week’s key topics included the PKK’s disarmament, Erdoğan’s meeting with DEM Party politicians, the tightening siege on Ekrem İmamoğlu, and efforts to pressure the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality through journalists.
Following Abdullah Öcalan’s call, the PKK declared a ceasefire and agreed to dissolve itself. However, Turkey’s attacks in both Iraqi Kurdistan and Syria have continued unabated. The downing of a Turkish Armed Forces drone in Iraqi Kurdistan on Sunday was a clear indication of this ongoing aggression.
A sense of peace had emerged in the region and among the Kurds after Mazlum Kobane, the de facto leader of Rojava, traveled to Damascus on an American military helicopter and signed an agreement with Syria’s de facto president, Ahmed al-Shaara. Even President Erdoğan, at the Brotherhood Iftar with Palestinians at the Beştepe National Exhibition Hall, appeared to support the process in his remarks.
Regarding the agreement between Syria’s interim president, Colani, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on integrating the SDF into state institutions, Erdoğan stated:
“We view any effort to rid Syria of terrorism as a step in the right direction. The full implementation of this agreement will serve Syria’s security and stability, ultimately benefiting all our Syrian brothers and sisters.”
However, it quickly became evident that this was mere rhetoric and that Turkey’s real aim was to buy time and legitimacy for Syria’s Islamist regime. Notably, Turkey was the only country that refrained from condemning the massacres against Alawites by the Damascus regime, instead blaming the remnants of the Assad regime for the deaths.
Ankara did not stop there. A large delegation, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, and National Intelligence Organization (MİT) Chief İbrahim Kalın, was sent to Damascus. Meanwhile, the Syrian government declared that the new system in Syria would be based on Islamic law and that the country would be renamed the “Syrian Arab Republic.” This decision was rejected by Kurds, Druze, Alawites, and Christian minorities.
It was an open secret that the Trump administration had facilitated the Damascus-Rojava agreement. Against this backdrop, Erdoğan held a phone call with U.S. President Trump on the last day of the week. Trump’s expectations from Ankara were clear: the cleansing of Gaza from Palestinians and the transformation of the area into a massive tourism hub through American companies. It is likely that he sought Erdoğan’s support for this plan.
Erdoğan’s list of demands from Trump, on the other hand, was extensive. According to the Presidential Communications Directorate, Erdoğan stated:
“During the meeting, President Erdoğan emphasized the importance of lifting sanctions on Syria to restore stability, make the new administration functional, and facilitate normalization, which would enable the return of displaced Syrians. He also expressed expectations that the U.S. would adopt an approach aligned with Turkey’s interests in counterterrorism efforts and called for the termination of CAATSA sanctions, the finalization of the F-16 procurement process, and Turkey’s reintegration into the F-35 program.”
Turkey does not see Syria merely as a country within its sphere of influence; it also hopes to secure a dominant role in Syria’s reconstruction. To this end, Ankara is not only lobbying the U.S. but also urging the European Union to lift sanctions on Syria unconditionally.
However, the relentless massacres of Alawites, the attempt to create a new Afghanistan on Europe’s doorstep, and the efforts to establish an Arab Islamist state under the guise of inclusivity make this goal unattainable.
In this volatile environment, the PKK has asserted that the dissolution process cannot be one-sided. It insists that a secure environment must be established before the congress that will formalize its disbandment and demands Abdullah Öcalan’s participation in this congress in some capacity.
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who has not been seen in public since his heart valve surgery but is rumored to be communicating via phone, also weighed in. He praised DEM Party’s peace efforts while reiterating that the PKK must lay down arms unconditionally.
Peace and negotiations seem to be progressing in a “one step forward, two steps back” manner, as described in Lenin’s famous book. However, developments suggest that Syria is rapidly heading toward another civil war and that the situation in Turkey remains highly fragile. Erdoğan has scheduled a meeting with the DEM delegation for after the Eid holiday, but it remains unclear whether the goal is genuine peace or merely securing DEM’s support for a model that would ensure Erdoğan’s indefinite presidency. The current trajectory suggests that the primary aim is to amend the constitution to redefine Turkish identity and citizenship, offering Kurdish voters superficial concessions in exchange for their support in early elections and constitutional changes.
While maneuvering to clear the path for his reelection, Erdoğan is also intensifying pressure on his biggest political rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu. Official government social media accounts are sharing allegedly fabricated documents related to İmamoğlu, and there is open speculation that his university diploma could be revoked this week. Meanwhile, individuals working with or close to İmamoğlu are having their assets seized, and journalists accused of financial ties with the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are being banned from traveling abroad.
In this dark political landscape, Erdoğan is also attempting to strengthen ties with the European Union. With relations between the U.S. and Brussels nearing a breaking point, the EU is seeking new defense strategies, and Ankara is trying to capitalize on the situation. As NATO’s second-largest military force, Turkey hopes to reset its relations with the EU. Having made substantial investments in the defense industry, Ankara has signed joint destroyer and weapons systems agreements with Portugal and Spain and aspires to participate in Europe’s arms procurement and development projects.
With an economy on the brink of collapse and an unprecedented level of domestic repression over the past 50 years, Erdoğan has forced his people into poverty and deprivation. How he will navigate this turbulent landscape remains to be seen.
