The Weekly Turkey Report: 3rd Week of March.
Turkey has just experienced a pivotal and tumultuous week, marking a clear fracture in the AKP-MHP regime. The wave of developments began in the early hours of March 19, when Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor and CHP presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu was taken into custody during a pre-dawn raid on his home, accused of “corruption” and leading a “terrorist organization.” The incident sparked nationwide outrage.
Led primarily by university students, a swelling wave of protests against corruption, poverty, authoritarianism, and the erosion of the rule of law spread rapidly across all segments of society. Even traditionally conservative cities saw citizens pour into the streets in defiance of the regime.
The operation, reportedly launched following a phone call between President Erdoğan and former U.S. President Donald Trump, gave the impression that Washington had signaled its willingness to overlook democratic norms in favor of broader regional agreements. Steve Wilkoff, the pro-Israel U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, stated that the two leaders had a “remarkable and transformational” conversation and that “positive outcomes” were on the horizon.
Amid heightened political tension, it was announced that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan would travel to Washington to give concrete form to the two leaders’ discussions—potentially laying the groundwork for a future Erdoğan-Trump summit. Analysts speculated that Trump might support Erdoğan’s vision for post-war Syria in exchange for allowing massive tourism developments in Gaza to benefit his family’s business interests.
While the political crisis unfolded, Turkey’s already fragile economy took a severe hit. The country’s credit default swap (CDS) rate and currency policy were shaken. The Central Bank was forced to sell $26 billion from its limited reserves in just three days and raise interest rates from 42% to 46%. Whether these developments signal the collapse of the regime or a transition into overt fascism remains uncertain.
The events reached a critical point following Istanbul University’s controversial and unlawful annulment of İmamoğlu’s 35-year-old diploma. On March 19, İmamoğlu was detained as part of two separate investigations launched by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office on charges of corruption and terrorism. In the corruption case, 100 individuals were detained, including Beylikdüzü Mayor Murat Çalık and several Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) officials. In the terrorism-related investigation—allegedly linked to the “urban consensus” policy—six individuals, including Şişli Mayor Resul Ekrem Şahan and IMM Secretary General Mahir Polat, were also detained.
According to the prosecutor’s statement, İmamoğlu and the others had knowingly participated in the “urban consensus” effort to expand the PKK/KCK’s influence in metropolitan areas by shaping municipal council lists in the 2024 local elections, thus “aiding a terrorist organization.”
Just four hours after İmamoğlu’s detention, the Istanbul Stock Exchange plummeted, and the Turkish lira hit record lows against major currencies. The Euro rose by 5 TL in a single day, exceeding 45 TL for the first time. The dollar climbed to 41.12 TL, also setting a record.
Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Turkey, condemned the detentions, stating that the country was “rushing headlong into full authoritarianism.” Similarly, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe, which includes Turkey, strongly condemned the arrest of Istanbul’s democratically elected mayor. However, these statements were not followed by concrete action. As with past incidents, the EU—preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the refugee deal with Turkey—appeared willing to tolerate Ankara’s authoritarian trajectory.
Despite official inaction, European media, particularly in Germany, gave broad coverage to the events, and members of the Turkish diaspora organized protests across Europe.
Meanwhile, the Chief Public Prosecutor expanded the crackdown to include the seizure of all assets belonging to İmamoğlu and his family’s businesses. His advisor, Murat Ongun, was also targeted.
Until now, large-scale detentions and municipal takeovers had mostly affected Kurdish regions or Istanbul and were met with limited localized responses. But the targeting of İmamoğlu—Erdoğan’s main rival in the presidential race—and the prospect of his imprisonment triggered mass outrage nationwide. Protests that began at Istanbul University rapidly spread to other campuses and cities.
The protests, largely supported by the public, energized the CHP, which had previously been reluctant to take bold action. Party leader Özgür Özel declared that their struggle would now move to the streets and called on Istanbul residents to gather at Saraçhane Square. The initial gatherings of hundreds of thousands grew to over a million by the fourth night. Protests extended beyond Istanbul to major cities like Ankara and İzmir. Although entirely peaceful, police responded with excessive force, using tear gas, rubber bullets, and beatings. Reports emerged of women being dragged on the ground, students being clubbed, and detainees subjected to strip searches and abuse.
In a shocking development, the administration of the Istanbul Bar Association—one of the world’s largest with nearly 63,000 members—was removed by court order. Bar Association President and human rights advocate Prof. İbrahim Kaboğlu declared the decision illegitimate.
Despite the turmoil, the CHP leadership pressed ahead with plans to select a presidential candidate through internal primaries on Sunday, March 23. İmamoğlu, who was removed from office by the Interior Ministry, was not replaced by a trustee, as he was not arrested on terrorism charges. A deputy mayor will instead be elected by the city council.
Recognizing the public’s outrage, the CHP established “solidarity ballot boxes” across the country to allow citizens beyond party members to vote. As news of İmamoğlu’s arrest on corruption charges spread, millions turned out to cast ballots in an extraordinary show of support. Images of long lines and overcrowded voting stations poured in from all regions.
That night, at Saraçhane Square, Özgür Özel formally declared Ekrem İmamoğlu the CHP’s presidential candidate. He stated that nearly 15 million people participated in the vote, including over 13 million non-party members.
These events also triggered a media war between the government and the opposition. Pro-government outlets completely ignored the protests, while independent channels like Halk TV, Sözcü TV, and Tele1 covered them extensively. RTÜK, the state broadcasting regulator, directly threatened these channels with license revocation. In response, Özgür Özel announced a boycott campaign against businesses owned by pro-government media barons, calling on the opposition and its supporters to stop consuming their products.
Meanwhile, social media accounts belonging to the CHP and İmamoğlu, which streamed the protests live on X (formerly Twitter), drew millions of viewers. In response, the regime throttled internet bandwidth and suspended numerous accounts. For the first time, however, X rejected the Turkish government’s latest request to suspend a list of 700 accounts, stating that it would legally challenge the demand. The throttling disrupted messaging, e-commerce, and online banking services nationwide.
Journalists also faced repression. Several reporters covering the protests—including Zeynep Kuray, Bülent Kılıç, Yasin Akgül, Ali Onur Tosun, Murat Kocabaş, Gökhan Kam, and Hayri Tunç—were detained in early morning police raids. IBB photojournalist Kurtuluş Arı and Sendika.org’s Zişan Gür were also arrested.
On Sunday, Kurdish communities celebrated Newroz, drawing millions into public squares across Turkey, including Istanbul. The celebrations were marked by calls for peace and condemnation of the regime. A speech by Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş—formerly of the MHP—criticizing Kurdish culture drew backlash. As a result, CHP leader Özgür Özel’s Newroz message was booed. Realizing the growing rift between CHP and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party base, Özel later apologized for the divisive language.
Meanwhile, a peace appeal made by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli to Abdullah Öcalan in October was quietly dropped. Bahçeli, recovering from heart surgery, has not been seen publicly, and doubts have been raised about the authenticity of tweets posted in his name.
In this atmosphere, Ankara rejected any notion of a PKK-declared ceasefire, calling for the organization to lay down arms unconditionally and immediately. PKK leaders responded by accusing Ankara of reneging on earlier commitments and failing to improve Öcalan’s prison conditions. Senior commander Murat Karayılan stated that expectations for Öcalan’s active participation in peace efforts were not “demands” but necessary preconditions, warning that many fighters remained unconvinced by current leadership strategies.
In summary, the events of the past week have pushed Turkey to the brink of abandoning its competitive authoritarian model in favor of outright fascism, akin to regimes in Russia or Azerbaijan. While the opposition may not yet be strong enough to topple the regime, its resistance is undeniable. Unlike other autocracies, Turkey lacks natural resource wealth, and its collapsing economy presents a serious obstacle for Erdoğan. The panic-driven measures following İmamoğlu’s detention may only accelerate economic decline and deepen public suffering.
A potential military intervention in Syria risks spilling violence into Turkey and triggering a new wave of refugees. Regardless of the outcome, Turkey has entered one of the most fragile periods in its modern history—and there appears to be no way out without a heavy price.
