4th Week of December: Erdoğan Shifts the Agenda with Drug and Betting Operations

Weekly Turkey Report: 4th Week of December 2025: Erdoğan Shifts the Agenda with Drug and Betting Operations

Executive Summary

• Turkey spent the week with drug, match-fixing, and illegal betting operations targeting well-known names from sports, entertainment, and the media—while the regime avoided touching the trafficking “barons” who bring drugs into the country and distribute them.

• These high-visibility operations pushed the 28% minimum-wage increase, deepening poverty, and rising corruption into the background—and did so successfully.

• A Falcon-type aircraft carrying Libya’s Chief of General Staff crashed shortly after departing Ankara, killing all passengers and crew; the Ministry of National Defense said the cause is being examined jointly with Libyan authorities.

• Ankara’s priority in the Kurdish issue remains Rojava; despite heavy pressure, the Rojava administration refuses to hand over weapons to Damascus amid deep distrust after Alawite and Druze massacres.

• Erdoğan continues with broad, rhetorical messaging on “Terror-Free Türkiye,” while avoiding any reference to the Kurds’ core rights and demands.

• CHP Chair Özgür Özel rejected the “first solve, then democratize” approach, arguing that democratization must be an integral, simultaneous process.

• Polls again diverged but broadly suggested a tight CHP–AKP race, with persistent concerns about methodological ethics and oversight in Türkiye’s polling ecosystem.

• The minimum wage increase for 2026 fell below the hunger threshold and below inflation, yet triggered no meaningful reaction from unions or the broader public.

Erdoğan Shifts the Agenda with Drug Operations

Türkiye spent the past week with drug operations targeting public figures known from sports, entertainment, and the media, as well as match-fixing and illegal betting investigations. A regime that does not touch the barons who bring drugs into Türkiye and sell them has, in recent months, been giving no breathing room to celebrity end users.

In the West, even marijuana—freely purchased from state-supervised stores—can still lead to arrest in Türkiye, and to one’s private life being exposed to the public through the judiciary. All these operations aim to push into the background the 28% increase in the minimum wage, deepening poverty, and corruption that grows by the day—and they succeed.

Within this agenda, a Falcon-type aircraft carrying Libya’s Chief of General Staff, who was visiting Türkiye, crashed shortly after taking off from Ankara. All passengers and crew died. Regarding the deaths of eight people—five military officials and three crew members—some commentators pointed to Russia, while others pointed to Türkiye.

The Ministry of National Defense (MSB) issued a statement on the aircraft carrying the Libyan military delegation, and also on UAVs shot down in the Black Sea and falling in two provinces. Regarding the crash, the MSB said: “The cause of the accident is being examined in all aspects, meticulously, by the relevant institutions of our state, in cooperation with the Libyan authorities.” Regarding the UAVs, the statement said: “These incidents are not a reflection of an air-defense vulnerability, but rather a reflection of the increased use of UAVs due to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.”

Ankara’s Priority Is Rojava

In the Kurdish issue, the knot is now tied to Rojava. Despite all of Ankara’s pressure—making the SDF’s integration into Syria’s central army a precondition—the Rojava administration, which does not trust the ISIS-remnant Jolani government after the Alawite and Druze massacres, does not accept handing over weapons to Damascus. Türkiye’s Kurds appear to have lost hope regarding their own situation and shifted into a “at least save Rojava” mode.

To expect democracy and the rule of law at the end of a process whose aim is to remove the PKK from the scene as an armed actor requires a mindset beyond naïveté.

Erdoğan’s Roadmap

Erdoğan continues on his path with flashy statements, but does not say a single word about the Kurds’ core rights and demands:

• “As we make progress in our Terror-Free Türkiye process, the atmosphere of pessimism beyond our borders has begun to disperse; our Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen, Sunni, and Shiite brothers have begun to look to their future with hope. We are doing whatever is required to strengthen these hopes.”

• “With full awareness that we carry the trust of 86 million, we are pursuing a determined policy. We are not chasing political gain. We strive to open wide the window of opportunity before Türkiye and to rid our country of the scourge of terror forever.”

• “We are working to do this without making our martyrs’ bones ache, and without casting a shadow over their sacred memory. We have not allowed, and will not allow, any initiative, word, or action that would disturb our martyrs’ families or our veterans.”

Özel: “First Solution, Then Democratization” Is Wrong

CHP Chair Özgür Özel responded to criticisms directed at his party’s proposals submitted to the commission and said he finds the “first solution, then democratization” approach wrong:

• “In the end, CHP accepts the existence of the problem and says it should be solved through democratization. Of course, when specific regulations are needed for a solution, some call this a special law, some call it a special statute or arrangement—the key point is that we must abandon this wrong language about prioritization.”

• “The understanding that ‘first the problem will be solved, then democratization will follow’ is wrong. This does not inspire confidence for opposition parties, opposition voters, or anxious voters. That is why I believe an intertwined process must be pursued. While taking democratization steps, it must be thought through.”

Parties’ Vote Shares

In this atmosphere, polling firms continued to publish surveys showing parties’ support levels. The key point to note is the broadly accepted reality in Türkiye that firms tend to present the party they work with as strong. Beyond the margin of error, there is an ethical problem and a lack of oversight.

• Area Research: CHP and AKP tied: 31.1%. DEM Party 9%, İYİ Party 8.2%, MHP 6.5%, Victory Party 4.6%, Key Party 4.2%, YRP 2.1%, Others 3.2%

• ORC Research: AKP 32.5%, CHP 30.9%, DEM 7.8%, MHP 7.4%, İYİ 6.2%, Victory Party 3.9%, BBP 3.1%, YRP 2.7%, SP 1.8%, ANP 1.1%, Others 2.6%

• HBS Research: CHP 34.3%, AKP 29.8%, DEM 7.3%, MHP 6.3%, İYİ 6.1%, Victory 4.7%, YRP 3.6%, Key Party 2.9%, TİP 1.2%

ECtHR to Examine İmamoğlu Application as a Priority

Attorney Mehmet Pehlivan, detained in Çorlu Karatepe High-Security Prison, announced that they were officially notified that the ECtHR will examine, as a priority, their application regarding the detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP’s presidential candidate.

ISIS Arrest in Malatya; Detentions Reported as 115

The National Intelligence Organization (MİT) and the police announced that they captured an ISIS member in Malatya, said to have been preparing an attack for New Year’s. International media outlets reported that the number of ISIS detainees was 115.

Minimum Wage Disappoints, Yet No Reaction

The 2026 net minimum wage was set at 28,075 TL with a 27% increase; the gross wage became 33,030 TL. Minister Işıkhan also announced that the minimum-wage support—implemented as 1,000 TL last year—rose to 1,270 TL.

The 27% increase in the minimum wage—accepted as Türkiye’s “average wage” and affecting millions—created deep disappointment. The wage of 28,075 TL was announced below the hunger threshold of 29,828 TL for the first time in history, and also remained below inflation at around 31%. Yet neither unions nor broad segments of society produced a serious reaction to this low wage.

Heavy Pressure on Television

RTÜK member Tuncay Keser stated that “2025 was a difficult year for critical journalism, with news and commentary programs buried under penalties,” and reported that RTÜK issued 99 sanctions decisions in 2025 and imposed 146.7 million TL in administrative fines on 32 institutions.

Cumhuriyet columnist and journalist Barış Terkoğlu was detained. Taken from the Onlar TV building by gendarmerie, Terkoğlu was brought to the Çağlayan Courthouse to give a statement. He was released under a travel ban.

Mass Detentions in Football

In an investigation into illegal betting allegations in football, detention orders were issued for 29 people, including former Galatasaray executive Erden Timur, Turkish Football Federation Foreign Relations and National Teams Administrative Director Buğra Cem İmamoğulları, and Eyüpspor Vice President Fatih Kulaksız. Of those targeted—14 reportedly footballers—24 were detained.

Household Debt Distress Deepens

According to Turkish Banks Association data, the number of people unable to pay loan and credit-card debt rose by 20%in the first ten months of the year, reaching a record. Banks’ non-performing receivables increased by 142% to 261 billion TL. Financial discipline arrived at citizens’ doors in the form of enforcement officers.

11th Judicial Package: “Covid-19 Amnesty” Provision and Releases

Article 27 of the 11th Judicial Package—known publicly as the “Covid-19 amnesty”—was adopted after removing the phrase covering those “convicted for killing offenses occurring as a result of the collapse, destruction, or damage of buildings or other structures due to the earthquake.” More than 50,000 ordinary-crime convicts were released from prisons.