End of October: Europe Embraces Erdoğan

Weekly Turkey Report: End of October 2025: Europe Embraces Erdoğan

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped global balances and increased Turkey’s value in the eyes of Europe and the broader Western alliance. Even before the war, however, the issue of Syrian refugees had already led European capitals to turn a blind eye to Erdoğan’s brutal violations of human rights and the rule of law, including his open defiance of European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) rulings, in exchange for keeping Syrians in Turkey.

This hypocrisy has left human rights defender and civil society leader Osman Kavala entering his eighth year in captivity on fabricated evidence, despite ECHR decisions overturning the judgments against him. Not to mention Kurdish political prisoners—foremost among them Selahattin Demirtaş—members of the Gülen community, opposition figures, and journalists.

Marking Kavala’s eighth year in prison, politicians and opinion leaders issued statements of support that resonated widely across Turkey’s political, academic, legal, and media circles. Many prominent figures—including former President Abdullah Gül, former ministers, writers, and human rights advocates—called for Kavala’s release.

Former President Abdullah Gül said, “Implementing the ECHR ruling will both remedy the injustice done to him and contribute to the image of the Republic of Turkey,” while former Justice Minister Cemil Çiçek stated, “I once said the ECHR decision on Öcalan was the hardest to implement, and even that we implemented; I still hold the same view.”

Yet neither Kavala’s case nor the predicament of jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu seemed to matter to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who arrived in Ankara one after the other. The British Prime Minister returned home buoyed by a deal to sell 20 Eurofighter jets to Turkey, stressing that the €9 billion package would prevent thousands of job losses in the UK.

Chancellor Merz, for his part, came to Ankara with a highly sensitive agenda focused on migration and defense, including the deportation of Turkish nationals. In his briefing book was the return of more than 22,000 Turkish citizens awaiting deportation from Germany because Turkey has thus far refused to readmit them.

At the joint press conference, a question about İmamoğlu dominated the proceedings. When a German journalist asked about the case, Erdoğan defended the operations against the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB), saying: “If you trample the law underfoot, judicial bodies in a state governed by the rule of law must do what is necessary.”

Merz responded to the same question by noting: “We discussed this in detail; I expressed my concerns. I stated there are issues—such as the independence of the judiciary—that are incompatible with our understanding.” Another striking topic was the disagreement over Israel. The meeting also touched on Turkey’s potential participation in the €150 billion European Defence Fund.

Bahçeli’s October 29 Snub

The 102nd anniversary of the Republic’s founding featured political theatrics from MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. He skipped both the ceremony at Anıtkabir and the evening reception at the Presidential Complex—though he still sent Erdoğan a gift. Reports suggest Bahçeli is displeased with the slow pace of the peace process with the Kurds. Some commentators spoke of a crisis, but Erdoğan—as always—denied such claims.

At the October 29 reception, CHP, İYİ Party, and the DEM Party were absent, while DEVA leader Ali Babacan, Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu, HÜDA-PAR’s Zekeriya Yapıcıoğlu, Yeniden Refah leader Fatih Erbakan, and the DSP attended; Sinan Oğan was also present. Protesting the ceremony at the Complex, the CHP decided not to attend the evening reception either. The absence of both CHP and MHP drew attention, and the DEM Party was not invited.

Ali Babacan—rumored to be returning to the AKP—said, “The AKP has strayed from its founding principles and values,” adding that the “root causes” of his departure remain. Asked how he would respond if the AKP requested a meeting, Babacan emphasized the importance of dialogue between parties, while underscoring that cooperation is a separate matter.

Skipping the Ankara events, the CHP held a massive rally in its Istanbul stronghold of Kadıköy. Reports put attendance at over two million, and the atmosphere was festive.

Kurdish Peace Creeps Forward

KCK Executive Council Co-Chair Cemil Bayık announced that the PKK had dissolved itself and ended its armed struggle—an act he framed as a “historic responsibility” to keep the peace process from stalling. He called on the government for “democratic integration” and “freedom laws,” arguing that Kurds have been excluded since 1923 and that “now it is the state’s turn to act.” He also noted that Öcalan’s call applies only to the PKK and does not include forces in Rojava.

Presidential Chief Advisor Mehmet Uçum said it would be a shortcoming if the commission did not produce a democracy report and that such a report could be released alongside a transition report. Uçum stated that the process initiated by Erdoğan and Bahçeli has become state policy and that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan could be heard by the commission.

President Erdoğan met at the Presidency with DEM Party İmralı Delegation members—Deputy Speaker of Parliament and Van MP Pervin Buldan and Şanlıurfa MP Mithat Sancar. The meeting lasted about an hour.

Football’s Betting–Referee Scandal

Turkish Football Federation President İbrahim Hacıoğlu publicly laid bare the dire state of Turkish football:

“Based on data from state institutions and the work of our professionals, among 571 active referees in the professional leagues, 371 have betting accounts. Let’s not look askance at those with betting accounts; they may also subscribe just to watch matches. Of the 371, 152 actively placed bets: 7 are top-tier referees, 15 top-tier assistant referees, 36 category referees, and 94 category assistant referees. Ten referees placed more than 10,000 bets each; one referee alone placed 18,227 bets. Forty-two referees placed bets on more than a thousand football matches each; some bet on just a single match.”

Many of these referees received bans. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office expanded its investigation from referees to encompass roughly 3,700 players across leagues from the lower divisions up to the Süper Lig.

State Seizures of Companies Continue

As part of investigations into illegal betting and POS-based loan-sharking, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced the appointment of a trustee to Ozan Elektronik Para A.Ş., and the seizure of the assets of seven companies and ten suspects. The total value of seized assets was reported at 402 million lira.

The Anti-Inflation Effort Has Collapsed

In October, Istanbul consumer prices rose 3.31% month-on-month. According to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce’s Istanbul Cost of Living Index for October 2025, annual inflation reached 40.84%, with a cumulative increase of 34.40% since the start of the year.

Central Bank reserves dropped by $13 billion in the week of October 24—when an espionage investigation was opened against Ekrem İmamoğlu. Bankers said the Central Bank sold $5–5.5 billion in foreign exchange that week. Net reserves fell by $12 billion, and net reserves excluding swaps by $11 billion. Beyond political tensions, the decline in gold prices and carry-trade flows were key drivers of the reserve dynamics.

A New Operation Against Istanbul Municipality

The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office announced new detention orders for four additional staff members at the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality’s Smart Urbanization Department and the Communication Coordination Center (İBB-İKOM). They are accused of “unlawful dissemination of personal data” and “membership in a criminal organization,” as part of the investigation into what prosecutors term the “Ekrem İmamoğlu criminal organization.”

Erdoğan Puts Himself on a Par with Atatürk

Following discrepancies detected in Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) filings, an investigation found a shortfall of fuel worth roughly 1 billion TL in the Hatay and Antalya depots of TP Petrol Dağıtım A.Ş., which services the STAR Refinery. Three executives were arrested.

Stage actor Eda Saraç was detained in Harbiye after objecting to security measures instituted for an event featuring President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan while she was trying to make it to her performance. Brought before a court in Çağlayan on October 27, Saraç was arrested on charges of “insulting the President.”

In recent days, a standard circular on flag and poster displays led to the hanging—on buildings of the General Staff and the service commands—of posters not only of the Turkish flag and Atatürk, but also of President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.