New World

A NATO Win for Erdogan  

NATO’s Ankara Summit is over and, as expected, the winner is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish host has a lot to be happy about.  First,...

NATO’s Out-of-Area Strategy

As is known, NATO is a military alliance established after the Second World War to protect the military security of the West against communism...

The Future for Turkey and the EU after the July NATO Ankara Summit

On July 7-8, 2026, Turkey will host what has become the annual NATO leaders’ summit. The event will take place this year at the...

The U.S.–Iran Deal and Turkey’s Strategic Reassessment: Hezbollah as a Buffer Against Israel

The initial agreement between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran to end the recent war marks more than a temporary ceasefire....

Is the Regime in Iran endangered?

Demonstrations that began in Iran during the final two days of 2025 have continued, even if they appear to have lost some momentum. In...

Great Ambition, Great Disappointment

Turkey's Opium: Football Great Ambition, Great Disappointment Football is an integral part of daily life in many societies around the world. In Turkey, however, this passion...

Can Europe defend itself with Turkish help?

For all the efforts of European leaders to paper over frictions with Donald Trump, there has been no shortage of transatlantic drama over the...

The Waning Crescent? The Transformation, Not the End, of Political Islam

Faisal Devji’s Waning Crescent: The Rise and Fall of Global Islam offers a useful starting point for understanding the current crisis of political Islam....

What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?

A version of this blog appeared on Carnegie Endowment  On May 9, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to...

Who Won the Battle for Hegemony —and Who Will Dominate the Middle East?

The current war in the Middle East cannot be understood merely as a military confrontation among Israel, the United States, and Iran. The central...

The First Phase of Erdogan’s Plan to Neutralize the Main Opposition Is Complete

Turkey’s path to the dictatorship  The first phase of Erdoğan’s plan to neutralize the main opposition party — carried out in cooperation with former CHP...

The ‘Absolute Nullity’ Coup Against CHP

By moving to effectively install a court-appointed administration over CHP, Erdoğan's regime has taken a step that pushes Turkey closer to a Russian-style one-man...

The Implications of Withdrawing US Troops from Abroad

As of early 2026, the U.S. had almost 170,000 active-duty troops stationed abroad in approximately 750 military bases located in some 178 different countries....

NATO in Question

Is NATO on the way out? The Trump administration seems to think so but is not shedding a tear all the same.   A...

How Trump and Netanyahu tried but failed to get the Iranian Kurds to join the US-Israel War against Iran

At the start of the now on-hold US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, 2026, this author speculated on whether or not the United...

Turkey’s Strategic Neutrality in the US–Israel War Against Iran

Turkey’s Strategic Neutrality in the US–Israel War Against Iran*   The ongoing war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran presents a revealing case for understanding...

Iran’s Strategic Logic: Fuller, Nasr, and the Consequences of the 2026 War

  The dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East in recent years has renewed interest in a long-standing question: how should Iran’s foreign policy...

The climate impact of war

War is first and foremost a human tragedy. It results in devastating and unnecessary loss of life, disruption of families and communities, and the...

War and the Return of Memory: Alevi–Shi‘i Imaginaries in Contemporary Turkey

Beneath the visible structures of Anatolian political culture lies a deeper emotional and symbolic reservoir—one shaped not merely by institutions or ideologies, but by...

The Iran War, Europe and Turkey:  the Perils of Strategic Autonomy 

There is an old witticism, sometimes attributed to Leon Trostsky: “you might not be interested in war but war is interested in you.”  For...

Will the Iranian Kurds Enter The Iran War on The Side of The United States and Israel?  

Using The Kurds Again: Will the Iranian Kurds Enter The Iran War on The Side of The United States and Israel?   The United States...

The Stance of Turkey’s Political Parties in the face of the Israeli and U.S. Attack on Iran

To understand the stance of Turkey’s political class and society regarding the attacks on Iran, two main points must be examined: the fact that...

What About Iran’s Proxy Forces in Turkey?

What About Iran’s Proxy Forces in Turkey? Before the Iranian “mullah regime” collapses, it has already built a serious infrastructure inside Turkey—under Erdoğan’s protection—to reproduce...

Syria: The Next Phase 

  In a lightening offensive reminiscent of their overthrow of Assad in December 2024, Syria’s new president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s forces took some 80 percent of...

The Baath Regime and Its Collapse

While Syria lived for nearly four centuries under Ottoman rule, it came under the French Mandate in 1923. It gained independence as one of...

What’s Behind the EU-India Lovefest? 

 “The paradox about the European Union’s position in the world is that it is both a giant and a dwarf.” Nearly two decades later,...

How do you de-risk from the US? 

  How do you de-risk from the US?  “This response to our own allies for sending a small number of troops to Greenland for training is...

The Fragile Turkish-PKK Peace Process

The Fragile Turkish-PKK Peace Process Threatened by Renewed Fighting between the Syrian Army & Pro-Kurdish SDF              The sudden fighting in Aleppo between the Syrian army...

Neo-Ottoman Nationalism as a Post-Imperial Project: Identity, Memory, and Geopolitical Ambition

  Nationalism, at its core, is a political principle that answers three fundamental questions: Who are we as a collective? What norms and institutions should...

 Europe, Turkey and US in 2026

A year ago,  Donald Trump entered office recommitting to “an America First” foreign policy. To many of his supporters that meant disengaging from the...

The Pakistanization of Turkey?

The Pakistanization of Turkey? Why Tactical Supports of Yesterday Could Be Turkey’s Ideological Crisis Tomorrow On December 29, just before New Year’s Eve celebrations, three...

New National Security Strategy and Its Implications for U.S.–Türkiye Relations and Beyond

Trump’s New National Security Strategy (NSS): Its Implications for U.S.-Turkiye, Kurdish, and Middle East Relations Trump’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) abruptly posted in the middle...

Why Turkey’s Islamists and Liberals Blame İttihatçılık and Kemalism for Everything?

There is a fashionable consensus among Turkey’s liberal and Islamist commentators—Ahmet Altan among them—that “the Young Turks destroyed the Ottoman Empire, and it is...

The new US National Security Strategy will clash with reality

  It’s no secret that Donald Trump has a soft spot for Europe. He might not exactly be in love with the European Union (EU), ...

Erdogan’s Roadmap Going Forward

Recep Tayyip Erdogan—Turkey’s longtime leader as prime minister (2003-2014) and subsequently as president (2014-)—infamously once declared that “democracy is like a train; you get...

A Pragmatic Reset in EU–Turkey Relations

Turkey and the EU are going through a honeymoon of sorts. Friedrich Merz’s recent trip to Ankara capped a season of renewed engagement between...

Kurdish Identity and Recent Kurdish Issues

Two weeks ago, I again visited Iraqi Kurdistan—often referred to as the Iraqi Kurdistan Government (KRG)—to deliver the keynote address on “Kurdish Identity” at...

Trump Brought Erdoğan Back to the NATO Axis

As a historian, I can say that after the so-called coup attempt of July 15, 2016, President Trump undertook a move to end the...

The Trump-Putin Charade

Now that Gaza is done and dusted,  Donald Trump appears to be getting ready to settle another war, Ukraine. But do not hold your...

Turkey’s Recent Balance-of-Power Strategy

Erdogan’s September 2025 White House Visit: Its Impact on Turkey’s Recent Balance-of-Power Strategy On September 25, 2025, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited U.S. president Donald...

Is There Hope for Turkey?

In any functioning democracy, collective organization (the ability of individuals to form groups, join associations, and pursue political, social, or cultural objectives) is not...

Is North Macedonia Prepared to Combat Online Foreign Influence?

The digital landscape has become a critical battleground against violent extremism and the spread of anti-democratic values. Authoritarian regimes and extremist groups are...

The Halki Seminary and Religious Freedom in Turkey

The Rising Influence of the Ecumenical Patriarchate Along with its status and mission, the institution referred to in Turkey’s official discourse as the “Fener Greek...

How Rock-Solid is the UK-US “Special Relationship”?

It will not be an exaggeration that Donald Trump has turned upside down America’s  relations with Europe. From strong-arming NATO allies to commit to...

Turkey’s Renewed Balance-of-Power Policy

Turkey’s Renewed Balance-of-Power Policy among the Global Powers Arguably the superpower of the entire world in the sixteenth century under Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent, the...

Turkey’s Return to Confiscation

Turkey’s Return to Confiscation: A Historical Perspective on the New Law Granting Expanded Seizure Powers On January 30, 2025, Turkey’s Grand National Assembly (TBMM) passed...

Increasing Tension in The Caucasus

The Caucasus is a relatively small, but geostrategically significant region between the Black and Caspian Seas, athwart Europe and Asia, at the northern edge...

Is a Pax Trumpiana scenario conceivable in the Caucasus?

The Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, which began in Nagorno-Karabakh following the collapse of the Soviet Union, came to a halt after Azerbaijan emerged victorious in the...

What Really Happened on July 15? Revisiting the So-Called Coup Nine Years Later

Turkey has a rich history of military coups. The most recent one, the July 15 so-called coup attempt, seems to be a synthesis of...

Turkish Mediation in the Ukrainian War

Although Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been roundly criticized by many observers including this one for backsliding on democracy in his own country,...

Turkey’s Political Crisis Is a Crisis of the Regime

On March 19, 2025, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor and opposition presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited a political crisis that has been smoldering for...