By moving to effectively install a court-appointed administration over CHP, Erdoğan’s regime has taken a step that pushes Turkey closer to a Russian-style one-man rule, away from the competitive authoritarian system it had been. As the economy deteriorates and CHP gains ground, Erdoğan aims with this move to split CHP, inflame Alevi-Sunni tensions within the party, and — ahead of an increasingly likely early election — cement his power against a divided and weakened opposition. Having already significantly neutralized the Kurdish political movement through Öcalan, his ultimate goal is to create an opposition system fully subordinate to the state. Kılıçdaroğlu, a career bureaucrat, has historically deferred to the state: he stayed silent when Erdoğan’s rigged referendum expanded presidential powers, turned a blind eye to manipulated election results, and actively supported the constitutional amendment that sent Kurdish MPs to prison.
Erdoğan has another card to play ahead of elections: by passing the pending Aegean jurisdiction bill in parliament, he could manufacture a crisis with Greece just before the vote, rallying the opposition behind him under a nationalist banner.
Erdoğan plays a long game and leaves nothing to chance — pressing forward even as he drives Turkey toward deep economic crisis. Notably, as he did before ordering İmamoğlu’s arrest, Erdoğan held a phone call with Trump just before this move.
Background: What Is CHP?
CHP (Republican People’s Party) is Turkey’s oldest party, founded by Atatürk in 1923. It is center-left and secularist in orientation. In the March 2024 local elections it won major cities including Istanbul and Ankara, making it the main opposition force.
What Happened?
On May 21, 2026, the 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Appeal annulled the November 2023 CHP congress — the congress at which Özgür Özel replaced Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as party leader. For the first time in Turkish history, a party leadership elected by delegates was overturned by a court ruling.
The court’s reasoning: certain delegates were provided with cash, job promises, shopping vouchers, and other benefits, thereby vitiating their free will and corrupting the democratic process.
The Legal Dimension: What Does ‘Absolute Nullity’ Mean?
In Turkish civil law, absolute nullity (mutlak butlan) means that a legal act is deemed void from the very beginning, as if it never existed. The court did not merely cancel the congress — it also invalidated all subsequent congresses held under Özel’s leadership and ruled that the party must revert to its pre-congress state. In effect, Kılıçdaroğlu is once again party leader.
The decision was taken unanimously and is open to appeal at the Court of Cassation (Yargıtay) within two weeks.
The Two Sides
Özel and CHP Leadership
“These coup-makers come through judicial power — not with tanks, guns or rifles, but in judges’ and prosecutors’ robes.” Özel announced they will not recognize the ruling and will appeal to both the Court of Cassation and the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK).
The Government
Justice Minister Akın Gürlek argued the ruling serves to protect democratic will and emphasized that Turkey is a state governed by the rule of law.
What Are Lawyers Saying?
Even Ersan Şen, a criminal law professor known for his proximity to the government, stated that the ruling contradicts the law:
“The Political Parties Law No. 2820 contains no provision criminalizing ‘unlawful procurement of votes’ as does the Electoral Law No. 298. A claim of immorality cannot lead to the conclusion that the parties’ wills were vitiated, nor does it constitute grounds for absolute nullity. Beyond the absence of sufficient grounds for annulment, the connection between the acts in the file and an absolute nullity ruling cannot be established through abstract general principles.”
Former European Court of Human Rights judge Rıza Türmen also stated the ruling was political, not legal: “Politics is being engineered through the judiciary, the opposition is being engineered… Democracy in Turkey no longer exists.” Türmen noted that the YSK had previously recognized the contested congress, that CHP held two further congresses afterward, and that Özel was re-elected with near-unanimous support — meaning the delegates’ will has effectively been nullified.
Economic Impact
When the ruling was announced, Finance Minister Şimşek and Central Bank Governor Karahan were in London meeting with foreign investors — those investors walked out of the meeting upon hearing the news.
Circuit breakers were triggered on Borsa Istanbul and the market closed in sell-off territory. Turkey’s credit default swap spreads (country risk premium) jumped from 247 to 257 basis points. State banks sold approximately $6 billion to defend the lira. The Financial Stability Committee convened in an emergency session.
Analysts: Short-term volatility is serious, but the medium-to-long-term macroeconomic outlook remains unchanged.
Potential Impact on Elections
Scenario 1 — Court of Cassation Overturns the Ruling
CHP emerges damaged but strengthened as a victim of ‘judicial coup.’ The opposition base may mobilize. Combined with the broad public sympathy generated by İmamoğlu’s arrest, the opposition could enter the 2028 elections in a stronger position.
Scenario 2 — Court of Cassation Upholds the Ruling
CHP is paralyzed by leadership conflict for an extended period. The figure of Kılıçdaroğlu — who lost the 2023 presidential race — returns, internal tensions escalate, and the opposition risks fragmentation.
Municipal Governments
The mayors of Istanbul (İmamoğlu) and Ankara (Mansur Yavaş) are elected officials and are not directly affected by this ruling. However, party coordination and resources may be severely disrupted.
The Presidency
Whether Erdoğan can constitutionally run again in 2028 is already a contested question. The main opposition entering this crisis before it can even mount a challenge significantly strengthens AKP’s strategic position — and opens the door for Erdoğan to change the constitution, potentially with Öcalan’s support.
The Big Picture
This development lays bare a structural feature of Turkish politics: a chronic lack of trust in judicial independence. For the opposition, this ruling is the latest in a pattern that includes İmamoğlu’s arrest and threats to install a government administrator over Istanbul’s municipality.
The process is not over — the Court of Cassation’s ruling will be decisive. However, given the Turkish judiciary’s dependence on the Presidential Palace, the fact that judges’ careers are effectively in Erdoğan’s hands, and that corruption files are reportedly kept on many judges, expecting the Court of Cassation to deliver a ruling that displeases the Palace is not realistic. What happens next will depend on the resolve and tactics of Özel and his team — though at this stage they appear to be adopting a soft, deferential posture.
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