2nd Week of May: The Regime’s Fear

Weekly Turkey Report: 2nd Week of May

Türkiye continues down a turbulent path marked by internal and external unrest, an increasingly repressive regime, and deepening economic collapse. Israel’s attack on Iran and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s call for regime change and public uprising in Iran has sounded alarm bells in Ankara. The Turkish government’s greatest fear is the potential emergence of a new autonomous Kurdish region on its border should the Iranian regime collapse.

Following Israel’s strikes, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK)—the Iranian branch of the PKK—issued a statement declaring its readiness to act against the Iranian regime. PJAK became the third Kurdish group to position itself against Tehran, following similar declarations by the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK).

Reacting swiftly to these developments, Ankara intensified its military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) claimed that Turkish forces used chemical weapons in recent strikes, resulting in the deaths of two of its fighters. Analysts suggest that Türkiye’s overarching goal is to prevent the formation of a continuous Kurdish corridor stretching from Iranian Kurdistan into Syria.

At the same time, Türkiye hopes the escalating conflict in Iran will be halted before triggering full regime collapse. Should prolonged bombardment drive the Iranian economy into ruin, the regime—already lacking popular legitimacy—could fall, paving the way for Kurdish autonomy similar to that in Iraq and Syria.

President Erdoğan has engaged in a flurry of diplomacy, holding separate phone conversations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Syrian President Ahmed Shar’a. Erdoğan also spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump, expressing Türkiye’s willingness to do its part in preventing uncontrollable escalation between Iran and Israel.

Meanwhile, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party continues its efforts to promote a non-violent resolution. DEM Party spokesperson Ayşegül Doğan revealed that Abdullah Öcalan has expressed interest in meeting with representatives from other political movements. The party is also planning a new delegation visit to İmralı Prison.

Speaking after a central executive board meeting, Doğan stated that Öcalan wishes to meet not only with Turkish authorities but also with key regional political figures, including Mesoud Barzani, Nechirvan Barzani, Mazloum Abdi, Kubad Talabani, and Bafel Talabani—emphasizing the significance of these meetings for regional peace and reconciliation.

In parallel, Ankara continues investing in its defense industry. President Erdoğan recently announced a major export agreement involving the delivery of 48 domestically produced KAAN fighter jets to Indonesia. However, the aircraft currently exists only as a prototype and lacks an engine. There is no clear timeline for the production of its fifth-generation engine.

Intensifying Pressure on the CHP

Domestically, the Erdoğan regime is sustaining pressure on the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The ruling AKP recently seized control of Istanbul’s Gaziosmanpaşa Municipality, which it had failed to win in elections, through political maneuvering. Following the suspension of elected CHP Mayor Hakan Bahçetepe, the municipal council voted in AKP member Eray Karadeniz as interim mayor.

Gelecek Party MP Kani Torun denounced the move, recalling the political courtesy shown when Erdoğan himself was imprisoned in 1999. Torun described the recent maneuver as “a form of electoral theft.”

Aware of the backlash against ongoing judicial harassment targeting CHP and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the government has moved trials away from central Istanbul courts to the Silivri prison complex. İmamoğlu’s latest trial—triggered by his public remarks on judicial misconduct—will be held in Silivri, a decision his legal team decried as “procedurally unlawful” and chose to boycott.

In a statement, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality declared that İmamoğlu and his lawyers would not attend the hearing, citing unlawful procedural changes. CHP leader Özgür Özel also criticized the sudden move of the trial location just 23 hours before the hearing, rhetorically asking, “What are they afraid of? That tens of thousands might show up at Çağlayan Courthouse?”

Former CHP chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu—who has refused to firmly deny speculation that a government-appointed trustee might replace current CHP leadership—visited İmamoğlu in Silivri. The visit reportedly took place at İmamoğlu’s request. Kılıçdaroğlu also met with several other detained political figures including Aykut Erdoğdu, Hasan Akgün, Rıza Akpolat, and others.

After the meeting, İmamoğlu reaffirmed his trust in the integrity of the CHP congress process and expressed full confidence in the leadership of Özgür Özel and Kılıçdaroğlu to stand united against the regime’s operations.

CHP leader Özel strongly rejected claims that a trustee might be imposed on his party by June 30. “If such a ruling is made, I won’t recognize it,” he declared. “Just as we didn’t recognize attempts to install a trustee in Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, I will defend the will of our members and supporters.”

Asked about what a refusal to recognize such a ruling would mean in practice, Özel said:

“The party would continue to function without breaking its internal hierarchy. We would find a way through the legal process. It could mean not leaving the CHP headquarters—not recognizing such a decision in any form. In politics, you’re handed a flag. That flag doesn’t touch the ground while you live.”

Legal Harassment of Opposition Figures

Elsewhere, Zafer Party leader Ümit Özdağ remains imprisoned and is facing charges of “inciting hatred and hostility.” Prosecutors have requested a prison sentence of 1.5 to 4.5 years and proposed the revocation of certain civil rights under Article 53 of the Turkish Penal Code. The court ruled to continue his detention, with the next hearing scheduled for June 17.

Europe Tightens Its Borders to Türkiye

Amid all this, European doors are increasingly closing to Turkish citizens. New visa restrictions and tightened border controls—driven by a continental crackdown on illegal migration—have sharply impacted Turkish travelers. Several EU countries, especially Germany, have effectively frozen Schengen visa applications for Turkish nationals. Reports of corruption in the visa appointment system have prompted investigations.

As pressure from irregular migration intensifies, EU states are also altering freedom-of-movement practices. What began with Germany’s increased scrutiny at borders has quickly expanded to include Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria, France, and the Netherlands. Together, these measures have curtailed the once-open travel regime of the Schengen Zone, replacing it with a more tightly monitored system.