3rd Week of December: Parties Respect the State’s Red Lines on the Kurdish Issue

Weekly Turkey Report: 3rd Week of December 2025: Parties Respect the State’s Red Lines on the Kurdish Issue

Executive Summary

• Turkey’s main political parties continued to operate within the state’s long-standing “red lines” on the Kurdish issue, largely reframing the debate around PKK disarmament rather than Kurdish rights and demands.

• The CHP submitted a 53-page report emphasizing democratization measures (ending trustee appointments, implementing ECHR/Constitutional Court rulings), but avoided proposals on reintegration of PKK members or the “Right to Hope.”

• The AKP presented a 60-page framework, including a mechanism to certify disarmament and a standalone, temporary legislative arrangement to manage the process.

• Reporting indicated that the state is considering a special legal regime for approximately 200 individuals identified as senior PKK figures, potentially inspired by an older (1928) precedent, including conditional release/deferral arrangements and reclassification of membership-related offenses.

• DEM Party’s criticism of MHP’s commission text remained measured; simultaneously, DEM’s İmralı delegation met with AKP, underscoring a shift toward seeking a “legal basis” for the next phase.

• Bloomberg reported that Ankara is considering returning the Russian-made S-400 systems as part of a reset with the United States and NATO; the Kremlin denied that such a request was raised in the Erdoğan–Putin meeting.

• President Erdoğan claimed high compliance with ECHR judgments, even as landmark rulings (including Demirtaş and Kavala-related cases) remain central to domestic and international criticism; the ECHR transferred Osman Kavala’s case to the Grand Chamber.

• Domestic enforcement pressures expanded across media, culture, and speech: convictions, detentions, RTÜK review actions, and contested court rationales signaled intensified moral policing and narrowing civic space.

• Security and governance concerns persisted, including unexplained drone incidents near major urban areas and a broad operation that resulted in TMSF being appointed trustee to entities linked to Anahat Holding, including GAİN Media.

• Economic strain continued: high interest rates and inflation contributed to a prolonged employment contraction in industry, with significant reported job losses.

Parties Remain Within the State’s Red Lines on the Kurdish Issue

Although the Republic of Turkey was formally founded in 1923, the report frames the state’s “real founding” as rooted in the 1910s, arguing that the Committee of Union and Progress developed a founding doctrine centered on a Turkish and Sunni core. Within this interpretation, political parties enjoy limited freedom so long as they do not cross the state’s “red lines”—and those who attempt to do so tend to “crash into a wall.”

The “Terror-Free Turkey” process launched under MHP’s leadership did not alter this pattern. Parties’ submissions to the parliamentary presidency largely sidestepped Kurdish society’s core demands and reduced the issue to PKK disarmament. While this created discomfort among Kurdish constituencies, it did not trigger a major institutional reaction from DEM Party. The political system continued to perform as though it were resolving the country’s most significant structural problem, without substantively redefining its parameters.

AKP and CHP Kurdish Reports

CHP’s 53-page submission

A CHP delegation submitted a 53-page report to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) Presidency. The text includes a range of measures broadly framed as necessary for democratization—such as ending trustee appointments (kayyım), implementing European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and Constitutional Court (AYM) rulings, raising democratic standards, ending discriminatory practices, ensuring pretrial detention is exceptional, and reforming the execution regime.

However, the CHP report does not include specific proposals on the reintegration process for PKK members or on the “Right to Hope” (Umut Hakkı).

AKP’s 60-page submission

AKP Group Deputy Chair Abdülhamit Gül stated that they submitted a report with 15 headings spanning 60 pages. He indicated that the party proposes a dedicated, standalone, and temporary legal arrangement focused on the issue, including steps framed around social cohesion and democratization. AKP also proposed establishing a mechanism to verify and formalize the disarmament process.

The State’s Reported Plan

According to reporting by Cansu Çamlıbel (T24), the state is allegedly considering relocating the Kandil leadership structure to İmralı Island. The report claims the state has identified roughly 200 individuals as “PKK executives,” for whom a temporary and special legal arrangement would be introduced. Officials reportedly cite inspiration from Law No. 1239, enacted in 1928.

Key elements as reported include:

• Conditional release / deferral structure: A three-year conditional release or sentence deferral mechanism would apply. Individuals who reoffend within three years would face enforcement of deferred penalties in addition to the new offense.

• Sentencing treatment: Reportedly, aggravated life sentences would be treated as 12 years, life sentences as 10 years; sentences under 10 years would be subject to direct deferral.

• “Defunct terrorist organization” classification: By recognizing the organization as a “defunct terrorist organization” (münfesih terör örgütü), membership would cease to be treated as a criminal offense; individuals not involved in violence or operational acts would be released.

DEM Party’s Measured Criticism; AKP–İmralı Meeting

DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan criticized MHP’s commission report, arguing that rather than reflecting Devlet Bahçeli’s “bold” statements, the text repeatedly asserted that there is no Kurdish issue. He characterized this as deeply inappropriate.

Separately, AKP met with DEM’s İmralı delegation to discuss the new process. Following the meeting, Pervin Buldan stated that participants spoke candidly, emphasizing that “peace cannot be unlawful” and that the process has entered a phase requiring a legal foundation.

Turkiye Is Reportedly Considering Returning the S-400 Systems

Bloomberg reported—citing sources close to the matter—that Turkiye is weighing returning the S-400 air defense systems purchased from Russia roughly a decade ago, a step that could open a new chapter with the United States and NATO. President Erdoğan reportedly raised the issue in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan, and similar contacts allegedly occurred previously.

The Presidency and the Ministry of National Defense declined comment. The Kremlin denied that any such request was raised during the leaders’ meeting.

Erdoğan’s Claim on ECHR Compliance; Kavala Case Moves to the Grand Chamber

As domestic criticism continues over non-implementation of major ECHR judgments—especially those concerning Selahattin Demirtaş and Osman Kavala—President Erdoğan asserted that Turkiye’s compliance with ECHR decisions is exceptionally high, including a claim of roughly 90% compliance and comparatively low violation rates.

Meanwhile, the ECHR transferred Osman Kavala’s case—linked to the Gezi proceedings—to the Grand Chamber. Legal scholar Kerem Altınparmak described the move as highly significant, underscoring that Grand Chamber judgments become final upon issuance and cannot be appealed.

State Moral Policing and Expanding Legal Pressure

A series of cases reflected intensified scrutiny over culture, speech, and public morality:

• Manifest group case: Members were sentenced to 3 months and 22 days for “indecent acts by exposure,” with the announcement of the verdict deferred (HAGB). Their overseas travel ban under judicial control was lifted.

• RTÜK review: The broadcasting regulator announced it launched a review into the series Jasmine, whose first episode aired on December 12 and drew attention for sexual content.

• Levent Gültekin: The journalist was detained on December 17 over social media statements, on allegations of “publicly disseminating misleading information,” and later released under judicial control.

• Murat Övüç: The social media personality was arrested on allegations of “inciting hatred and hostility,” reportedly based on a video shared on his account.

• Fatih Altaylı: Istanbul’s 26th Heavy Penal Court published its reasoning for Altaylı’s 4 years and 2 months sentence, finding his statements outside the scope of freedom of expression and citing flight risk to justify continued detention.

• Hüseyin Kocabıyık: The former AKP İzmir MP received a sentence of 2 years, 5 months, and 5 days for “insulting the President,” alongside a release decision in the first hearing of a case in which he was also tried for “slander.”

• Tayfun Kahraman: Despite a Constitutional Court ruling that he was not tried fairly and should be retried, Kahraman remains imprisoned. The Court rejected a request for interim release on health grounds but ordered ongoing monitoring of his health status and detention conditions.

Russian Drones and Trustee Appointments to Media-Linked Holding Structures

Following an earlier incident in which a UAV was shot down by jets as it approached Ankara, another drone reportedly fell after becoming entangled in trees in İzmit. Authorities stated the drone’s camera was operational and that technical analysis would determine its origin and cause of failure. The Interior Ministry announced preliminary findings indicating the drone was a Russian-made Orlan-10.

Separately, on the instruction of the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, a broad operation targeted companies under Anahat Holding, including digital content platform GAİN Media. Authorities announced that, due to the nature of the allegations and investigative integrity, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) was appointed as trustee to GAİN Media and other affiliated entities.

Industry Job Losses Amid High Interest and Persistent Inflation

The report notes that high interest rates and an inflationary environment have continued to strain industry. In the past two years, many firms reportedly sought concordat protection or effectively moved toward bankruptcy, while the labor cost has increasingly been borne by workers. It cites 15 consecutive months of employment losses and reports that 245,000 people were laid off in affected factories.