3rd Week of January: Turkey Chooses the Sri Lanka Model

Weekly Turkey Report: 3rd Week of January – Turkey Chooses the Sri Lanka Model

Executive Summary

• The report argues that Ankara’s long-admired “Sri Lanka model” approach to the Kurdish issue has been extended from Iraq into Syria, enabled by shifting regional and U.S. policy dynamics.
• It portrays Turkey, Damascus, and allied forces as prioritizing the Euphrates basin, oil fields, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor, with Kobane framed as a near-term objective for Ankara.
• Domestically, the Kurdish file remains central, with competing statements from Erdoğan, Bahçeli, DEM, and the KCK.
• Under the “Terror-Free Turkey” process, the parliamentary commission report reportedly excludes both a “right to hope” provision for Öcalan and a general amnesty, signaling instead a temporary legal arrangement.
• The week also featured allegations of citizenship/identity status granted to ISIS-linked individuals, a major cocaine seizure tied to a Turkey-based firm, and worsening poverty indicators alongside polling on widespread “societal burnout.”

It was no secret that the AKP government admired the “Sri Lanka model” in the Kurdish issue. A similar method in the fight against the PKK had long been on the agenda, and Ankara found the opportunity to implement it—first in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and now in Syria. After drones were brought into play and the military capacity of the Kurdish Political Movement inside Turkey was reduced to near nonexistence, Ankara then turned toward the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

There too, drones and permanent military bases sharply constrained the PKK’s room for maneuver, making cross-border movement from Iraq into Turkey almost impossible. Ankara then brought Abdullah Öcalan into the equation, securing a decision for the PKK to dissolve itself. The report argues that Ankara’s greatest advantage came from Donald Trump’s return to office in the United States.

Following the conclusion of an Israel–Syria agreement, Washington effectively gave Ankara a green light against the Kurds. Under the Shara administration, HTS forces—backed actively by the Turkish Armed Forces—moved against the Rojava Administration and seized oil fields critical to Damascus. In an environment where Arab tribes under Rojava’s administration either remained silent or shifted to the regime’s side, the Syrian Democratic Forces’ chances of success diminished significantly.

From Ankara’s perspective, even if Israel has consolidated strength in the south and Turkey’s operational space around Damascus appears temporarily constrained, the outcome looks like a strategic success in military and political terms. Having rendered the Kurdish movement inside Turkey ineffective through a nominal “peace process,” Ankara appears to have created an environment in which it feels secure in the near term.

For Damascus and Ankara, the primary targets appear to be the Euphrates basin, the oil fields, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor. Severing Kobane’s link to the Rojava Administration and forcing Kobane to surrender remains an Ankara priority.

Although it will take time for Syria to stabilize, a zone Ankara has long viewed as threatening has been substantially “cleared,” while the DEM Party has been reduced to an ineffective actor domestically. The impact and weight of Abdullah Öcalan’s negotiation call from İmralı—issued after 40 days—has also become an open question. Having opted to resolve the Kurdish issue through pressure and violence, in cooperation with Arab actors, Ankara appears—for now—to have obtained what it wanted with the backing of the United States and Europe. Yet the region’s 40 million Kurds and their unresolved grievances remain.

In light of these developments, Turkey witnessed the following events last week:

Erdoğan’s message to the Kurds

President Erdoğan said developments in Aleppo mark a critical stage for regional balances. “Clearing Aleppo of YPG elements is important for peace and stability in Syria. We will never allow the brotherhood among Turks, Kurds, and Arabs to be undermined,” he said.

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, speaking at his party’s parliamentary group meeting, criticized Donald Trump. Arguing that Trump’s steps on Venezuela and Iran disregard international law, Bahçeli claimed the U.S. is “rotting from within” and entering a process of fragmentation, adding: “The days when the U.S. will be split into 50 pieces are not far off.”

DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan offered the following assessment: “In Aleppo, a new attempt at Halabja was carried out. From here we call out to those making these dark calculations: you will not keep your decayed regimes standing by holding Kurds in a ‘genocide vise.’ You will not realize your political calculations by prescribing genocide against Kurds—because we will not allow it. Syria’s problem is not the Kurds defending their lands, the Alawites protecting their faith, or the Druze. Syria’s problem is a Salafi, monist, racist model of governance. It is a bankrupt mindset that mobilizes all its means so that Kurds will not ‘see the sun.’”

In a statement from the KCK, Turkey’s policies were criticized in connection with developments in Syria and the “solution process”: “It also calls into question the ceasefire between our movement and Turkey, and the peace and democratic society process sustained on that basis. In this process, attacks directly targeting our movement show that the so-called special transitional law that is said to be prepared will not constitute a step toward a solution.”

No amnesty for Kurds, no rights either

It was learned that a parliamentary commission report prepared under the “Terror-Free Turkey” process does not include a “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, nor a general amnesty for organization members. It was reported that the status of members will be addressed through a temporary legal arrangement. AKP officials stated that no legal step will be taken unless the SDF is integrated into the Syrian army, and that no move will be made without confirmation from security units.

Turkish citizenship for ISIS members

Prosecutorial documents revealed that ISIS members in Turkey were granted citizenship and identity documents. According to reporting based on these documents, the families of three ISIS militants identified as having played active roles in conflict zones received Turkish citizenship; additionally, 19 members of the organization were found to be living in Turkey with foreign identity documents and temporary protection status issued by provincial migration directorates.

Award for İmamoğlu

The Paweł Adamowicz Award—presented as a symbol of democracy, human dignity, and the will to live together—was awarded to Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP’s presidential candidate, who was detained and removed from his post as Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality mayor. The award was announced publicly at a ceremony in Gdańsk, Poland, at 19:00 last night.

Joining a Saudi–Pakistan defense alignment

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey’s talks on a defense alignment with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are continuing, but no agreement has yet been signed. He emphasized that establishing regional security cooperation could resolve a large share of existing problems: “As of now, there are talks and discussions, but we still have not signed any agreement.”

Human rights violations and a killing

Ali Aydın, the co-chair of the Human Rights Association (İHD) İzmir Branch and a lawyer, was reportedly killed after an attack while on a morning walk in İzmir’s Çiğli district.

Despite a Constitutional Court (AYM) ruling finding a rights violation, Gezi convict Tayfun Kahraman—hospitalized due to an MS attack 13 days ago—was sent back to prison today.

Corruption allegations in the Turkish Armed Forces

The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into allegations of public losses in procurement tenders of the Land Forces Command.

According to journalist Alican Uludağ, an operation was conducted over allegations of rigging in military cargo and passenger transport tenders. Twenty people were detained, including six soldiers. Eighteen tenders were reviewed. Suspects were accused of bid-rigging in contract performance and bribery. The total alleged public loss was 23,578,000 TL.

Ten tons of cocaine on a Turkish-linked ship

Spain seized approximately 10 tons of cocaine in an operation in the Atlantic Ocean targeting a Cameroon-flagged commercial ship. The drugs—described as the largest single seizure in Europe to date—were found on a vessel owned by Turkey-based Kamer Shipping & Trading Co.

According to security sources, the cocaine seized in what is described as the largest drug operation in European history belonged to Çetin Gören—previously detained as the alleged leader of the “Bataklık” operation, but later released and acquitted.

Poverty deepens and spreads

According to Türk-İş data, in Ankara the monthly food expenditure for a family of four has reached 30,143 TL. This figure reflects only kitchen/food costs; housing, energy, transportation, health, and other mandatory expenses are not included. Under these conditions, Türk-İş stated, “it is not realistic to expect millions of people to sustain their lives on 20,000 TL.”

A report prepared using MetroPOLL’s end-of-2025 data described a picture of “societal burnout” in Turkey. According to the research, 61% of society experiences a high level of burnout, while one out of every two people said they needed psychological support within the past year.

According to the 2026 Henley Passport Index, Singapore ranks first with visa-free access to 192 countries, while Turkey ranks 46th with access to 113 countries.