4th Week of July: The State of Statelessness

 Weekly Turkey Report: 4th Week of July

Turkey continues to flounder amid wildfires, a deepening economic crisis, corruption, and lawlessness. The state, inadequate in fighting the fires, passively watches as forest workers perish in action and young conscripts die of heatstroke during training. Meanwhile, an ambiguous “peace process” lingers without clarity or consensus.

Wildfires broke out across the country due to extreme heat, arson, and negligence. Thousands of acres of forestland have burned due to insufficient aerial firefighting. In Eskişehir, five forest workers and five AKUT rescue personnel lost their lives when shifting winds trapped them in the flames. In İskenderun, two conscripted soldiers died of organ failure caused by dehydration under extreme heat.

Last week, Parliament approved the establishment of a peace commission, but CHP (Republican People’s Party) raised objections regarding the commission’s name, purpose, decision-making, and majority structure. Whether the visit of National Intelligence Organization (MİT) head İbrahim Kalın to CHP leader Özgür Özel will change this picture remains to be seen.

German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius stated that Berlin’s approval of Eurofighter jet sales to Turkey was influenced by a public call made from prison by Ekrem İmamoğlu, the opposition’s presidential candidate and elected Mayor of Istanbul.

Will CHP Join the Parliamentary Commission?

Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş sent letters to political parties asking them to nominate members for a new commission that will outline the road map of the government’s so-called “terror-free Turkey” peace process. The 51-member commission will include 21 MPs from AKP, 10 from CHP, 4 each from DEM and MHP, and 3 each from İYİ Party and Yeni Yol. One MP each from several non-grouped parties will also participate. Many observers believe the commission will be limited in scope and fail to deliver the democratic reforms that are expected.

A Major Legal Change

Amidst all this, one of the most controversial provisions of the Turkish Penal Code was repealed. The article that allowed for people to be punished as if they were members of a terrorist organization even if they were not, simply for committing crimes “on behalf” of such groups, has officially been removed. The Constitutional Court annulled this provision in 2021 and 2023. Since Parliament failed to re-legislate it within the six-month window, it is now no longer enforceable. Opposition parties had long criticized this clause as a tool for political persecution. The repeal has opened the door to release for many. Around 150 people have already been freed, with more expected to follow.

The Constitutional Court rejected CHP’s appeal regarding the recent judicial appointments to the Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK), a process that CHP leader Özgür Özel described as “a pickpocketing attempt against the Constitution.”

Death, Detention, and Oppression

The “Saturday Mothers,” who have been holding sit-in protests in front of Galatasaray High School for decades demanding justice for loved ones lost to forced disappearances, lost a key figure this week. Emine Ocak, who tirelessly sought the truth about her son Hasan Ocak—abducted in custody in 1995—passed away. “With great sorrow, we announce the loss of Emine Ocak, the bold and persistent voice of our struggle for truth and justice,” read the announcement on social media.

The Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) announced that several of its members and executives, including Party Council member Arzum Yalçın, were detained after slogans chanted at a CHP rally in Bakırköy, Istanbul.

Mehmet Murat Çalık, the Mayor of Beylikdüzü, who recently underwent surgery for suspected lymphoma, received a second bone marrow biopsy. During a hospital visit, former Speaker of Parliament Bülent Arınç criticized the continued detention of individuals without indictments, calling once again for trial without arrest.

Major Economic Collapse

Moody’s upgraded Turkey’s credit rating from “B1” to “Ba3” citing improved policymaking. However, the outlook was downgraded from “positive” to “stable.”

After the Central Bank’s unexpected 300-basis-point interest rate cut in July, Morgan Stanley and Garanti BBVA held their end-of-year policy rate forecasts steady. Yet, Morgan Stanley raised its dollar/lira forecast from 43 to 45 and its inflation estimate to 30%, citing rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira.

Hakan Doğu, former CEO of Renault Turkey, revealed that Stellantis redirected its $1.2 billion investment from Turkey to Morocco, warning that “Turkey is losing its investment appeal.” This signals danger not only for the auto industry but also for its suppliers.

The economic crisis is inflicting deep wounds on Turkey’s textile sector, one of the country’s main production and export drivers. Difficulty accessing credit, high inflation, currency pressures, and rising operational costs are driving small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) into crisis. In Istanbul’s textile hubs—Merter, Laleli, and Zeytinburnu—many shops have shut down. Even at peak business hours, streets are lined with closed storefronts.

Data from the Istanbul Textile and Raw Materials Exporters’ Association (İTHİB) for the first half of 2025 reveals the severity: 300 textile and ready-wear companies declared concordatum in the first six months alone. Many SMEs couldn’t even afford the costs of the legal process and were forced to shut down quietly. This poses a serious threat to both employment and the domestic market.

The Bill for Barzani Trade

CHP MP Deniz Yavuzyılmaz revealed the staggering financial cost of unauthorized oil trade between Erdoğan-aligned businessmen and the Barzani family:
“Between 2014 and 2023, Erdoğan’s allies bypassed the Iraqi central government and, under agreements with the Kurdish Regional Government, transported oil via the Turkey-Iraq pipeline and loaded it at Ceyhan as Iraqi oil. This resulted in a massive penalty from international arbitration.”
The penalty is now final. With interest accumulating daily, Turkey owes a total of $1.47 billion—roughly 60 billion liraat the current exchange rate.
“These arbitration documents cannot be erased. This file cannot be closed. And this file is only the first brick in the wall.”

Visa Crisis and Media Suppression

Securing visa appointments has become a major crisis for Turkish citizens. Bots are hoarding Schengen visa slots and reselling them on the black market for up to €3,000 (around 105,000 lira).

RTÜK, Turkey’s broadcast regulator, fined Tele 1 and Halk TV with administrative penalties of 3%. Tele 1 was further penalized with a 5-day blackout and an additional 5% fine. If the channel receives another penalty for the same offense within a year, its license will be revoked.