Aoun’s Security Puzzle: The Behind-the-Scenes Work to Contain Crises

Lebanon is trying to keep another devastating war at bay as diplomacy between Washington and Tehran stalls, and Israeli threats intensify. President Joseph Aoun’s insistence on sending a Lebanese delegation to the military talks in Tampa, Florida, reflects Beirut’s determination to keep diplomatic channels open, despite the slim prospects of a breakthrough with Israel. The outcome of Israel’s parliamentary elections could also have repercussions across the Middle East, including in Lebanon.

With little room for diplomatic progress for now, Beirut is using the time available to intensify contacts with regional and international capitals. The aim is to keep Lebanon out of a wider conflict and limit the damage if war proves unavoidable. Contacts with Washington remain active, as the Lebanese presidency presses the US administration to take practical measures to compel Israel to honor the framework agreement. These include establishing additional pilot areas, agreeing on verification and monitoring mechanisms, and determining which countries would take part. The latest round of military talks produced no meaningful results, leaving further progress largely contingent on the outcome of Israel’s elections.

Aoun is also seeking to build on Arab backing. During a recent visit, Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Fahmy conveyed a message of support for Lebanon. The presidency is working to consolidate ties with France and Qatar, both of which have shown interest in the country. Diplomacy, however, is only one part of the challenge. Lebanon also needs to improve its economic conditions and prepare its security institutions to deal with threats at home and along its borders.

Future security arrangements in South Lebanon are becoming increasingly urgent as UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its expiration at the end of the year. Beirut’s main concern is how to maintain stability and avoid a security vacuum once the UN force withdraws. The Lebanese authorities are intensifying contacts with UN member states to overcome disagreements and secure an alternative, despite Washington’s opposition to the proposed arrangements.

Lebanon has put forward a plan for a new monitoring mission with the authority to document violations and monitor the Blue Line. The plan envisages an international presence that would coordinate between the Lebanese Army and Israeli forces and monitor the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Washington, however, remains strongly opposed to the proposed terms, wants the mission’s mandate revised, and is considering a smaller, less costly arrangement focused on border monitoring and helping Lebanese authorities meet their security commitments, including disarming Hezbollah.

The disagreement over the future mission is part of a wider challenge for for Aoun: how to extend the state’s authority across Lebanon without provoking further internal conflict. Government and judicial decisions increasingly aim to place weapons under the exclusive control of the army and prevent armed displays that threaten domestic stability. Enforcing those decisions requires particular care as Israeli attacks continue in the South and tensions with Hezbollah complicate the domestic security situation.

Much of this delicate work falls onto Andre Rahal, one of Aoun’s most trusted advisors. Highly experienced in political dialogue with a wide network of contacts across Lebanon’s political spectrum, Rahal works behind the scenes to mediate between rival parties, ease tensions, and prevent disputes from escalating. His role is crucial as the presidency tries to implement state decisions without allowing political disagreements to spill into wider instability.

Rahal’s regular presence at Aoun’s meetings with Arab and Western diplomatic delegations also gives him direct exposure to discussions affecting Lebanon. His contacts at home and abroad help him bridge differences between opposing parties and create room for understandings when relations deteriorate. His work has made him a target of political and media campaigns often aimed at undermining his influence and obstructing his efforts. Despite those attacks, he retains the president’s confidence and considerable latitude in carrying out his duties. Official sources attribute that trust to his record and professional conduct.

Rahal’s role is now facing a particularly difficult test. Israeli attacks on villages and towns in southern Lebanon continue to prevent the Lebanese Army from deploying all the way to the internationally recognized border, as required under Resolution 1701. At the same time, internalsecurity concerns have increased following the recent seizure of a truck carrying explosives to Hezbollah, further complicating relations between the state and the group.

Aoun must ensure that government and judicial decisions are enforced, from curbing armed displays and confiscating weapons and ammunition, to expediting investigations and referring those responsible to the courts. The challenge is to uphold the law and preserve security without triggering further domestic tensions, at a time when continued Israeli attacks and mounting friction with Hezbollah leave little room for miscalculation.