COP: Past, present, and future

Overview of COP30

The 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is being held in Belém, Brazil from 10-21 November 2025. As the UN’s annual global climate summit, the COP serves as the premier forum where nearly all countries negotiate how to respond to the climate crisis moving forward.

This COP comes at a particular juncture: ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement (2015) and with mounting pressure for concrete implementation rather than new promises. As such, COP30 is billed as a COP of implementation, where words must be turned into action. Alongside this, the Brazilian host has reiterated the importance of the Amazon setting, with President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva stating this is to be a “COP in the Amazon, not just about the Amazon”. Key themes this year include raising ambition on greenhouse gas emissions reductions, deepening the just transition away from fossil fuels, mobilising climate finance (especially for adaptation), and integrating nature and forests into climate strategy. 

History of the COP

Adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) laid the foundations of global climate governance, committing its signatories to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In 1995, the first COP was held in Berlin. Over the next three decades, the COP process has seen a mixture of landmark successes and operational frustrations. Some of the key COP successes include COP3 (1997) which resulted in the Kyoto Protocol, the first major treaty to set binding emissions targets for developed countries; and COP21 (2015) which resulted in the Paris Agreement, where, as of 2025, nearly 200 nations have agreed to a goal of keeping global warming to well below 2°C and endeavouring to limit rise to 1.5°C. Other milestone decisions over the years include systems for global emissions stocktake, the establishment of emissions transparency frameworks, and linking climate goals with adaptation and finance. 

However, the COP process has also faced criticism. Despite decades of summits, the gap between ambition and actual emissions reductions remains large. The COPs have been marked by North-South tensions, differing development and political priorities, and questions of fairness, for example, whose responsibility it is to mitigate historical as well as current emissions and to fund climate adaption, especially of countries who have contributed minimally to the climate crisis to date. Alongside this, ongoing presence and active lobbying of fossil fuel actors have tainted the apparent neutrality and urgency of the transition away from fossil fuels. 

Over time, the COP agenda has widened: from mitigation to adaptation, from emissions to nature and land use, and from state-actors to private sector, civil society and Indigenous peoples. The process also increasingly emphasises implementation, not just commitments. 

Current discussions at COP 30

As noted, COP30 is being framed as the moment to move from promises to delivery. The agenda emphasises assessing how far global efforts are on track, revising national commitments, accelerating the fossil fuel transition, scaling up adaptation and nature-based solutions, and mobilising climate finance. For many analysts, however, the primary question is whether this COP will produce actionable outcomes or become another negotiation without binding teeth. 

A major contested topic at COP30 – and those before – is the role of fossil fuels in the transition to sustainability. The fossil fuel debate is deeply political, touching on issues of power, economic models, vested interests, global equity, and intergenerational justice. With fossil fuel extraction and use still dominant globally, there are ongoing discussions on how and when to phase them out and how to ensure a just transition. Several recent reports highlight that at this COP a “fossil fuel fight” is brewing – delegates are drafting roadmaps to move beyond coal, oil and gas, all while the fossil fuel industry remains actively resisting such a shift. Indeed, about one in twenty-five COP30 participants are fossil fuel lobbyists – the highest share ever recorded – indicating their ongoing influence on the climate agenda. The host country is not innocent in these tensions. While showcasing its successes in forest protection and promoting a global “Tropical Forest Forever Facility” to channel funds to nations conserving tropical forests, Brazil has simultaneously cleared parts of the Amazon to facilitate access to the conference and continued approving new oil and gas licences in the region.

Climate finance remains a contested point of the COP30. At the previous COP29 in Baku, wealthy nations committed to contribute at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to a loss and damages fund. At this COP30, the focus is on a roadmap on how this might be achieved. Vulnerable countries, such as island nations, continue to demand more support for adaptation, loss and damage, and nature-based solutions, while historically high-emitting states face political and economic constraints to such demands. Another point of financial discussion is around trade and carbon pricing mechanisms. For example, India at COP30 is criticising the European Union’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as protectionist and contradictory to the UNFCCC principle of equity between developed and developing countries. 

Indigenous rights are another central topic at COP30, especially given its hosting in the Amazon region. Indigenous leaders and traditional communities have taken a strong position, demanding greater participation, recognition of land-rights and a halt to fossil fuel extraction, mining and deforestation on their territories. Tensions have erupted with protests at the Belém venue, including Indigenous groups infiltrating the conference centre to demand stronger action. These protests can be seen as a consequence of the failure of past global climate efforts to sufficiently address historic inequities, the rights of Indigenous peoples, and the protection of crucial ecosystems. As one Indigenous leader expressed: “We can’t eat money. We want our lands free from agribusiness, oil exploration, illegal miners, and illegal loggers.” 

The COP30 is also notable in who is in attendance – and who is not. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, UN secretary general António Guterres, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and The Prince of Wales, attending on behalf of King Charles, are in attendance. Meanwhile, China’s President Xi Jinping and USA President Donald Trump are notably absent – despite China and the USA being the world’s largest emitters. Concerningly, the USA President recently stated in a UN speech that climate change is “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world”.  

Future of the COP process

What happens after COP30? The COP process faces a number of critical challenges which will shape its future relevance and effectiveness. 

The key challenge ahead is shifting from negotiation-centric annual meetings to tangible implementation, ensuring that commitments are matched by political will, policies, financial investment, infrastructure, and behaviour change. COP30 signals this shift, but success will depend on whether follow-through actually happens. This means addressing power dynamics, vested interests, infrastructure lock-ins, and the economic models underpinning emissions, as well as securing the trillions of dollars needed for mitigation, adaptation, nature-based solutions, and the fossil fuel transition. There is a need to strengthen mechanisms for accountability, monitoring progress, evaluating outcomes, and holding states (and corporations) to commitments. If COPs become increasingly seen as symbolic rather than substantive, they risk losing credibility, particularly amongst civil society and vulnerable communities.

Future COPs will also need to embed justice, equity and inclusion more deeply, particularly the rights of Indigenous communities, local and traditional knowledges, and the mechanisms of participatory decision-making. The protests at COP30 illustrate the cost of neglecting this dimension. If climate governance remains top-down, it will struggle to mobilise the broad social action needed for large-scale change. Viewed through this lens, COPs may also evolve in form. With the scale and urgency of climate change growing, the annual meeting may need to be complemented by more frequent, thematic or regional gatherings, stronger institutional linkages with other global processes (e.g., nature, biodiversity, finance, trade), and enhanced civil society and Indigenous leadership participation.  

Conclusion

With three decades of climate diplomacy behind us and the Paris Agreement now ten years old, there is an urgent need to turn words into action. The COP30 summit, hosted in the Amazon region, presents a continuation of debates around fossil fuel phase-out and climate financing mechanisms. This COP has seen growing presence of Indigenous voices and integration of nature discussions alongside those of the climate crisis. The challenges are complex, however. If COP30 can deliver concrete pathways, stronger finance, meaningful inclusion and systemic transitions, it will mark a turning point. If it does not, the annual ritual of climate summits risks being increasingly insufficient. As the world looks ahead to COP31 – likely to be held in either Australia (drawing attention to the plight of island nations) or Turkey – the question remains whether the process can evolve from negotiation to genuine transformation.