Is a Pax Trumpiana scenario conceivable in the Caucasus?

The Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, which began in Nagorno-Karabakh following the collapse of the Soviet Union, came to a halt after Azerbaijan emerged victorious in the 2020 Karabakh War. Peace talks, which had been ongoing for approximately five years, concluded last week with the signing of an agreement at the White House, bringing peace to the South Caucasus.

By signing the peace agreement, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accepted the Zangezur Corridor, also known as the Trump Corridor, which will connect Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan. Since the security and operation of the corridor will be provided by the US, the US has taken a step into the South Caucasus. In this way, the US has also shown that it is the patron of Azerbaijani-Armenian peace. 

In fact, the US was supposed to gain influence in the South Caucasus nearly 100 years ago with the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres. According to this treaty, the US was to take over the protection of the Armenian state to be established in the region. However, President Wilson’s proposal for an Armenian Mandate was not accepted by the Senate. Now, after 105 years, the US has come to the South Caucasus. 

Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine was an important factor in the U.S. coming to the region with the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agreement. Otherwise, it is a reality that Russia would not easily accept the U.S. coming to a region it considers its backyard. Likewise, if Russia were not engaged in the war in Ukraine, neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia would have dared to make such an agreement. As a result, the US has gained an important foothold in the South Caucasus. The US presence in the region will undoubtedly give Georgia some breathing space. 

Furthermore, Iran will not be pleased with the US coming so close to its borders. For Iran, the US being close to its borders means that Israel is also nearby. The Azerbaijani-Armenian peace will also allow Nikol Pashinyan to relax. Pashinyan was facing serious opposition in his country. The US presence will strengthen Nikol Pashinyan’s hand against the opposition. 

The Trump corridor is also important for Turkey. Thus, Turkey will be able to communicate directly with the Turkic states of Central Asia via Azerbaijan. Turkey is only pleased with the US presence. This is because Turkey does not have enough power to balance Russia. With Russia preoccupied in Ukraine, Turkey must open its borders with Armenia to trade and transportation in order to establish peace in the South Caucasus and strengthen Nikol Pashinyan’s hand against the opposition.

Ultimately, I believe that the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agreement signed last week will bring the peace that South Caucasus has been seeking. The arrival of the US in the region through the Trump Corridor will strengthen the hand of the South Caucasus countries of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan against Russia. The winners will be Turkey, the US, Israel, and the South Caucasus countries. The states that will be most dissatisfied with this peace will undoubtedly be Russia and Iran.