Weekly Turkey Report: 2nd Week of January 2026 – Peace by Beating the Kurds

Executive Summary

Türkiye entered the new year amid an Ankara-backed assault in Aleppo aimed at displacing Kurdish communities, with drone support and heavy fire reported against areas under Asayish protection, including strikes on hospitals.

A ceasefire was declared after intervention by Trump’s Syria Special Envoy Tom Barrack, but thousands of Kurds—many previously displaced from Afrin—were forced to flee again, leaving no Kurdish presence west of the Euphrates.

Public attention was simultaneously redirected through high-profile drug operations targeting celebrities, while poverty, inflation, and inadequate pensions and civil-servant salaries remained pressing realities.

In parliament, MHP’s Feti Yıldız signaled an imminent joint commission report and indicated that an “equality” regulation in a new Execution Law could lead to the release of an additional 60,000 inmates within six months.

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz drew a clear line between disarmament and democratization, implying that Kurdish rights and legal reforms are not part of the current agenda.

Inflation data and wage adjustments confirmed that retirees and wage earners remain under severe pressure, alongside new tax and customs measures and an increase in the minimum pension.

Peace by Beating the Kurds

Türkiye began the new year with an assault launched by Ankara—in cooperation with Damascus’s jihadist administration in Syria—to displace Kurds in Aleppo. In the attack, which Türkiye’s command echelon supported alongside drones, two neighborhoods under the protection of the Asayish Forces were shelled with tanks and artillery, and hospitals were bombed. It was noteworthy that the assault came after an agreement signed in Paris between Israel and Damascus.

After Trump’s Syria Special Envoy Tom Barrack intervened, a ceasefire was declared. Thousands of Kurds—many of whom had migrated here from Afrin—were left homeless again and evacuated the two neighborhoods. Thus, the Kurdish presence west of the Euphrates came to an end.

It was also striking that the secular–religious and nationalist segments supported this operation, while the Kurdish street did not raise much reaction. In Şırnak, Kurdish youth poured into the streets not to protest the Aleppo attack, but to celebrate Fenerbahçe’s victory over Galatasaray to win the Turkish Super Cup.

Meanwhile, Ankara continued full-speed drug operations targeting celebrities to push poverty, inflation, and low pensions and civil-servant salaries off the public agenda. Media attention focused on actors and social media influencers who were detained or arrested for drug use.

Although a plan briefly surfaced—then quickly faded—regarding the United States sending Venezuela’s President Maduro, who it had seized in a sudden raid, to Türkiye, Ankara became concerned that, after Syria, Iran could also be dragged into civil war, raising fears that an independent Kurdish presence could emerge there as well. Türkiye witnessed the following developments last week:

An Undeclared Amnesty for Ordinary Criminal Offenders

MHP’s Feti Yıldız announced that the joint report of the parliamentary process commission would be completed by the end of the month. He said that, with an “equality” regulation in the new Execution Law, an additional 60,000 people would be released within six months. Under the first execution law, 50,000 people had already been released.

The drafting team—formed from representatives of political parties with parliamentary groups in the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission—met for a second time under the chairmanship of Speaker of Parliament Numan Kurtulmuş to prepare a joint report. MHP Deputy Chair Feti Yıldız stated that they would begin preparatory work on the report, adding: “We will speak in general terms, identify the headings, and drafting will begin in the coming days. We will publish the report within this month.”

While DEM signaled that it would support the Commission’s work without strongly objecting to events in Aleppo, observers noted that the process appears to be evolving into a phase in which Kurds are increasingly placed in a petitioning posture.

Former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş was sentenced to 1 year, 5 months, and 15 days in prison in a case where he was tried for “insulting the President.”

The PKK Will Disarm, but No Rights for Kurds

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said: “The DEM Party’s report goes somewhat beyond the commission’s mission and contains too many expectations. Laying down arms and eliminating terrorism is a separate process. Raising Türkiye’s democratic standards is a separate matter.” In other words, he again conveyed the message that, for Kurds, the only issue on the agenda is disarmament—and that rights and the rule of law are not on the agenda.

CHP Istanbul MP Oğuz Kaan Salıcı voiced concern about clashes in Aleppo between the Damascus administration and the SDF, stating: “It must not be forgotten that it is impossible for these clashes not to affect the process being conducted in Türkiye. A point at which military tension escalates, diplomatic channels narrow, and political judgment is pushed into the background will not contribute to searches for stability.”

Claim: The AKP Base Is Uneasy with the Process

According to a corridor report by Cumhuriyet, AKP officials emphasized that the indispensable condition for the process to advance is that the terrorist organization lay down arms with all its elements. However, it was claimed that the absence so far of any concrete and confidence-building step in that direction has complicated the process. In internal party assessments, the view reportedly voiced frequently was: “A process that moves forward in words but has no on-the-ground counterpart cannot produce social legitimacy.”

Özgür Özel Angers Erdoğan Again

CHP leader Özgür Özel once again criticized AKP Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s posture in foreign policy, stating:

“We want the Presidency to be strong. But the Erdoğan–Trump relationship is a threat to Türkiye. Erdoğan is demanding a future from Trump for himself. He is speaking on behalf of his own person. He is being threatened regarding his assets. I call on Erdoğan: you will not be able to obtain legitimacy from either Junior Trump or Father Trump.”

Following these remarks, Erdoğan filed a moral damages lawsuit against Özgür Özel for 500,000 Turkish lira.

MHP Deputy Chair Semih Yalçın stated that an all-out war is closer than ever, adding: “Under the current global conditions, it is essential for Türkiye to launch its own nuclear program.”

A Water Dispute in Ankara

Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) responded to Erdoğan’s remark—“incompetent (officials) who for weeks cannot even provide water to Ankara”—by stating: “While we have mobilized all available resources, no one should attempt to overshadow our municipality’s and ASKİ’s struggle against drought with mere talk.”

Bloomberg, a U.S.-based media outlet, claimed that Türkiye has initiated efforts to join a defense alliance between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan. Based on sources close to the matter, the report said that discussions have advanced to a further stage regarding this new security alignment, which could alter power balances in the Middle East and beyond.

A New Wave of Money-Laundering Investigations

An investigation into allegations of money laundering related to Ekol TV’s financing and ownership structure has expanded. The Küçükçekmece Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into businessman Mübariz Mansimov; Veysel Şahin; lawyer Ersan Şen; and Ekol TV Editor-in-Chief Emrah Doğru.

Pension Income Below the Hunger Threshold

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) released December inflation data. The change in CPI in December 2025 was recorded as a 0.89% increase compared to the previous month, a 30.89% increase compared to December of the previous year, and a 34.88% increase based on twelve-month averages.

With these data, wage increases for public employees and retirees also became clear. Accordingly, workers’ retirees will receive a 12.18% increase, while public employees and public-sector retirees will receive an 18.60% increase.

Prof. Dr. Mahfi Eğilmez stated that early-2026 pension increases for SSK, BAĞ-KUR, and civil-service retirees fall far short of compensating for the loss of purchasing power over the course of 2025. He criticized the situation as follows: “It looks like we are raising wages, but in reality we continue to reduce the purchasing power of minimum-wage earners and retirees.”

With a Presidential Decision published in the Official Gazette, the single fixed tax rate applicable to items brought by passengers with a value not exceeding €1,500 was set at 30% for items arriving from EU countries and 60% for items arriving from other countries. The €30 limit for duty-free shopping via postal mail or cargo from abroad was also abolished.

Updated SCT (ÖTV) rates were set at 6.95% for fuel and 7.95% for cigarettes and alcoholic beverages. Following the regulation, alcoholic beverages also increased in price.

Details also became clear regarding the base pension regulation awaited by millions. With additional work on top of the existing inflation differential, the minimum pension was approved to be raised to 20,000 Turkish lira, effective as of the January 2026 payment period. The minimum pension—applied as 16,881 lira as of December—was shown by calculations to fall below expectations without an additional regulation. If only the existing 12.19% inflation differential had been reflected, the minimum pension would have remained at 18,839 lira.