4th Week of June: No Exit Plan

The Weekly Turkey Report: 4th Week of June

ECONOMY

Turkey is in political and economic turmoil amid the scorching summer. As emphasized in an in-depth analysis by the Financial Times, President Erdoğan’s move to lower interest rates despite rising inflation in order to secure his re-election has drained the state treasury. The economic measures implemented by Mehmet Şimşek, who was appointed to prevent bankruptcy, have achieved only limited success.

Inflation is expected to reach around 30% by year’s end. However, the tight monetary policy and strong Turkish Lira required to meet this target have put significant strain on both producers and exporters. Amid rising bankruptcy and concordatum filings, the number of “zombie companies”—especially in the textile sector—is believed to be alarmingly high.

İMAMOĞLU AND CHP

In politics, Erdoğan is intensifying his efforts to destabilize the CHP through judicial means or appointing trustees. The perception that former CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is cooperating with the Erdogan’s Palace has deeply shaken the party. A new case has been filed against Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—already dismissed and arrested as part of a so-called(!) corruption investigation—this time for “insulting a public official,” with a sentence ranging from 9 months to 4 years and 1 month.

The indictment notes that after being summoned on March 23 for questioning in an investigation related to “aiding an armed terrorist organization,” İmamoğlu allegedly made insulting statements about two prosecutors during his court appearance, leading to the new investigation.

The pro-Erdogan Takvim newspaper, under direct government control, ran a front-page headline “Kılıçdaroğlu is Coming,” referring to the former CHP leader’s statements about the potential annulment (butlan) of the party congress. In response, CHP Konya Provincial Chair Mustafa Sarı stated, “If Takvim is praising you, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, something is wrong.”

This turmoil was triggered by Kılıçdaroğlu’s suggestion that he would not oppose a court ruling for annulment. In response, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, Mersin Mayor Vahap Seçer, and CHP Party Council member Engin Özkoç visited Kılıçdaroğlu and asked him to publicly oppose the annulment scenario and potential appointment of a trustee.

Kılıçdaroğlu responded:

“I cannot make such a statement. I hope annulment doesn’t happen, but if it does, I cannot leave my party to a trustee. Even if I refuse, a trustee will be appointed. Should I let that happen? After the decision, I’ll sit down with Özel and discuss it.”

Attempts to bring Kılıçdaroğlu and current leader Özgür Özel together have so far failed, although backchannel efforts continue. Sources close to Özel say such a meeting remains unlikely for now.

Özel, addressing ongoing judicial interference in party affairs, reiterated the legitimacy of his election by the congress. Responding to Kılıçdaroğlu’s suggestion he would take over again in the event of annulment, Özel said:

“I cannot ignore the renewed mandate of our delegates. Accepting leadership after annulment would be a historic mistake.”

He added that there is no provision for a trustee under the Political Parties Law, only for a “Call Committee” to organize a new congress within 40 days, implying that Kılıçdaroğlu may have misunderstood the process:

“No one unelected at congress can lead CHP. Just as I didn’t abandon the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, I won’t drop the party either.”

Meanwhile, İmamoğlu, arrested during the IBB investigation, sharply criticized Kılıçdaroğlu:

“I feel deeply betrayed. I served him for 13.5 years. If I am guilty, my biggest partner in crime is Kemal Bey.”
He added:
“Those rooting for annulment will be remembered in shame and cursed. Do not stoop to that level.”

CHP’s former leaders Hikmet Çetin, Altan Öymen, and Murat Karayalçın issued a joint statement:

“The congress was held in full public view. The same delegates gave Özgür Özel a stronger mandate. The solution lies in rejecting all scenarios that involve judicial restructuring of the party and firmly standing by our elected leader.”

AKP’s YSK (Supreme Election Council) representative Recep Özel warned that a court cannot overturn YSK’s decision on the congress, stating:

“If that happens, the system will collapse.”
IYI Party’s YSK representative echoed that view, affirming no court has the authority to overrule the YSK’s decision.

MHP Secretary-General İsmet Büyükataman criticized Özgür Özel’s speech at the EU Council in Brussels, accusing him of seeking foreign intervention in Turkish politics.

At the EU meeting, Özel warned that authoritarianism in Turkey is growing and attacks on the CHP are escalating. He described the justice system as weaponized and unlawful arrests as routine. He called on the EU to increase pressure on Erdoğan:

“Erdoğan feels less than 10% of the pressure he should from Europe. This illusion of no alternatives fuels authoritarianism. Turkey is not just Erdoğan.”

We will continue to update you on the June 30 court decision and subsequent developments.

FREEDOM OF SPEECH

The RTÜK (Radio and Television Supreme Council) imposed a 10-day blackout on Halk TV’s “Uncensored with Sinem Fıstıkoğlu” over nuclear physicist Tolga Yarman’s remarks that “Turkey is not becoming more religious, but more sectarian” and that “naming the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge was a provocation against Iran.”

RTÜK has already fined Sözcü TV and TELE 1, and if a third “inciting hatred” penalty is issued within a year, those stations may lose their licenses.

Journalists Eylem Yılmaz, Ozan Cırık, Dicle Baştürk, and Yavuz Akengin were arrested on June 13 in Artvin during raids. Reports of overcrowding and poor conditions, including Yılmaz sleeping on the floor, sparked outrage among press freedom advocates.

Just two days after being released from prison, prominent activists Bekir Aslan (aka “Basel”) and İrfan Değirmenci were arrested at an event held by the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) in Kadıköy. Riot police intervened in the event where Değirmenci was speaking. A total of 43 people, including several party officials, were detained with hands cuffed behind their backs.

KURDISH ISSUE

No concrete progress has been made in resolving the Kurdish issue, though Kurdish political leaders still express cautious optimism. DEM Party group leaders Gülistan Kılıç Koçyiğit and Sezai Temelli met with Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç to raise concerns over prison conditions.

Meanwhile, DEM Party’s İmralı delegation members Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar met with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş to discuss a potential new peace process. They announced plans to soon meet with Devlet Bahçeli (MHP), Özgür Özel (CHP), and President Erdoğan before visiting Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island.

Buldan said:

“We’ll be holding more comprehensive meetings soon. The process has reached a new stage, and we’ll share details in the coming days.”

However, on June 28, İYİ Party MP Turan Çömez reported violent clashes between Turkish forces and PKK militants in Iraq’s Zap region, with ten soldiers wounded, three of them critically.

A long-awaited 32,630-page rationale was released regarding the Kobani trial, which had concluded in May 2024. The court ruled that while the defendants—including Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ—were not responsible for the actual violence on October 6–8, 2014, they were guilty of inciting illegal demonstrations and aiding the aim of disrupting national unity.

FOREIGN POLICY OF TURKIYE

President Erdoğan joined a NATO summit dinner hosted by King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands and posed for a family photo with other leaders. He greeted former U.S. President Donald Trump warmly and sat next to him during dinner.

Later, Erdoğan and Trump held a one-on-one meeting through interpreters at the Royal Palace—their first since Trump’s second term. According to the Turkish Presidency, Erdoğan welcomed the Iran-Israel ceasefire facilitated by Trump and hoped it would be permanent.

Erdoğan stated:

“We didn’t discuss the S-400; that issue is closed. We did talk about the F-35s—we paid $1.3 billion. Trump seemed supportive. Work on F-16s and Eurofighters with Germany and the UK continues. We met around 11 p.m. for 1–1.5 hours. Gambling resorts in Gaza never came up—if it had, my stance is clear. Trump knows whom to ask what; that didn’t happen between us.”

Last year, approximately 50,000 students encountered various problems with their visa applications. Delays occurred due to document preparation, difficulties in securing appointments, and complications with intermediary agencies. Some applications were rejected, and even students whose visas were approved ended up losing their right to study or receive scholarships.

According to European Commission data, Turkey’s Schengen visa rejection rate was around 4% in 2014, 2015, and 2016. However, this figure rose to 17.6% during the pandemic year of 2021 and stood at 15.5% in 2022. In other words, of the 778,409 applications submitted from Turkey that year, 120,876 were rejected. Turkey was also the country with the highest number of Schengen visa applications in 2022.

DOMESTIC AFFAIRS

Latin America expert İmdat Öner made a disturbing claim on social media:

“The Colombian president alleges that drug barons who tried to kill him have fled to Turkey. Members of the Clan del Golfo are reportedly living lavishly in Turkey with fake passports.”

Meanwhile, journalist Alican Uludağ exposed allegations of brutal torture at a gendarmerie station in Reyhanlı, Hatay. Nine Syrian migrants trying to cross the border were detained and tortured; two died. One was buried in a junkyard, the other dumped outside a deportation center.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that 361 suspects were detained in operations conducted across 46 provinces over the past two weeks targeting the so-called FETO.