How Rock-Solid is the UK-US “Special Relationship”?

It will not be an exaggeration that Donald Trump has turned upside down America’s  relations with Europe. From strong-arming NATO allies to commit to 5% of GDP in defence spending to raising tariffs, to giving a boost to populists and nativists across the Old Continent, Trump has now shied away from throwing around his weight. For their part, the Europeans have chosen to indulge the White House rather than fight back.  With Russia flexing its military muscle next door, they have little choice but try to keep the US onside.  

Last week’s visit by the US President’s state to London came as yet another reminder that the UK is gunning for a special role in the new transatlantic constellation. The gambit by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, petting Trump’s ego with a full-blown state visit,  appears to be doing the job. The Brits exploited to the fullest the soft spot the US leader has for their country, along his love for pomp and circumstance that only a grand dinner with hosted by the King at Windsor Castle can provide. They snatched a new partnership on tech, on top of an earlier deal to charge UK imports to US “only” 10% tariff. And as dust is settling, it is fair to say that Starmer has become one of the European leaders Trump listens to, the rest being Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni and NATO’s secretary general Mark Rutte. Three cheers for a renewed US-UK bond, “priceless and eternal” in the words of Trump himself.  

Trump’s changing tune on Ukraine comes as a vindication for Starmer’s effort.   Following his overtures to Vladimir Putin culminating with last August’s Anchorage Summit, the US president seems to be taking a tougher line. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said Ukraine could recover “the original borders from where this war started”. He suggested the US and NATO could help, and also spoke about Russia’s vulnerable economy.  Europe’s “Trump-whisperers” – the group of heavyweights rushing to the White House after Anchorage, including Starmer – could claim at least some of the credit.   

The UK visit could also be assessed not solely in terms of what it achieved but also by the trouble it could have caused but somehow managed to avert. Key amongst these has been the British government’s decision to recognize Palestine which it did along with several other countries ahead of this year’s UN General Assembly session. But Trump and Starmer agreed to disagree and focus on other issues. The US spared criticism of the UK move. At the UN General Assembly’s annual gathering in New York, Trump slammed the decision as rewarding terror. Yet the UK was not put on the spot.    London mayor Sadiq Khan remained the sole target of the president’s anger.  At the UN General Assembly, Trump said that London had “a terrible, terrible mayor, and it’s been changed, it’s been so changed”. He accused Khan of plotting to introduce Sharia law in the capital city. But such theatrics are a small price to swallow as far as Starmer’s government is concerned.  

Yet it is too early for the UK to take a breath of relief and move forward to cash in on its privileged ties to Trump. Starmer is not out of the woods yet.  

First of all, any deal with the US is tentative. Trump is notoriously unpredictable and volatile. The 10% tariff deal could easily be derailed by a future crisis. The US administration has taken the EU to task over regulating the tech sector, including online safety rules and taxing digital services. But the same set of issues weigh on the relationship with the UK. The friction started under Biden but has gone a few notches up with Trump. “As the President of the United States, I will stand up to Countries that attack our incredible American Tech Companies … Show respect to America and our amazing Tech Companies or, consider the consequences!” Vice President JD Vance, a darling of US tech moguls, tacks a similar line but also brings up Europeans alleged clamp down on free speech. His speech at the Munich Security Conference last February bemoaned the UK government’s handling of speech regulation, citing the case of Adam Smith-Connor (jailed for praying near an abortion clinic buffer zone) as evidence of “infringements on free speech.” 

The notion that the UK silences conservative voices is deeply ingrained in the MAGA psyche. The late Charlie Kirk,  a figure who has reached near mythological status within the US right following his tragic death, used to call Britain a “totalitarian hellhole”  because of its transgressions, whether real or imagined. MAGA has forged a common cause with nativists in Britain. Kirk’s Turning Point has a spin-off in the UK. Even more strikingly,  Elon Musk addressed (over a video link) the recent Unite the Kingdom rally in central London drawing some 150,000 in protest against illegal migration and wokeism-running-wild. In other words, there are forces calling for the Trumpist revolution to be brought to Britain.  

Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party and one of the architects of Brexit, is poised to be the chief beneficiary. Farage is all too happy to showcase his personal relationship with Trump. The message being that similar to his US role model, he can turf out mainstream elites and seize power on the back of popular discontent. Currently,  Reform polls at 30%, ten points ahead of the governing Labour Party. In a strange twist,  Trump’s visit proved to be a heaven sent for Starmer. He has been mired in scandals of late, notably over Peter Mandelson’s ties to convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Labour is down in the polls because lacklustre economic growth and the general sense of lack of policy direction. Success on the foreign policy front is a rare positive story.   However, from Starmer’s perspective, Trump could also spell danger. There is always the danger that the US president will write off his relationship with the sitting government and side fully with Farage, an ideological fellow like no other. Of course, elections are not due until 2029 and Reform fortunes might well change. Other parties are taking aim at Farage too. Liberal Democrats are using his spectre as an opportunity to whip up their base.  The Conservatives, who are haemorrhaging support to Reform,  predictably view the latter as a threat to be neutralised sooner rather than later.  Negative campaigning might deflate Farage and convince Trump it is not worth investing into him.  But the opposite scenario, of Prime Minister Farage, is at least as likely.

Last but not least, Starmer’s bid to shape Trump’s view on Ukraine might crash too.   The president’s change of heart on Putin might prove short-lived and before we know US diplomacy could switch gears into courting the Russians. The end game of freezing the battlelines with the US and its NATO allies extending security guarantees – all the way up to an European deployment with British and French “boots on the ground” –  remains as out of reach as ever. In the meantime, Russia continues to rain drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities. Poland and Romania’s airspace has been violated too, while Denmark just suffered a major cyberattack. Whether this leads to Trump’s pushing back against the Russians or actually walking away from the collective effort to stop Putin is anyone’s guess. Such an eventuality will reveal that the special relationship between the US and the UK is far from what leaders on both present it to be.